Arkansas at No. 8 Texas A&M

Arkansas at No. 8 Texas A&M | 2020 NCAA Expert Analysis

Written by on October 29, 2020

Arkansas has been a huge surprise in the SEC this season under first-year coach Sam Pittman, but the Razorbacks are nearly two-touchdown underdogs on Saturday’s NCAAF odds when they visit No. 8 Texas A&M.

How to Bet Arkansas at Texas A&M NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

  • When: Saturday, 7:30 PM ET
  • Where: Kyle Field
  • TV: SEC Network
  • Stream: ESPN app
  • Radio:com
  • Opening NCAAF Lines: Texas A&M -12 (total 54.5)

Last Meeting

Last year, the teams played at a neutral site in Arlington, Texas (they usually do but not this year) and Texas A&M barely escaped a bad Hogs team 31-27. Kellen Mond threw for 251 yards and three touchdowns, and Quartney Davis’ second TD catch put the Aggies ahead to stay. Arkansas drove to the A&M 19 in the final minute before a fourth-down incompletion.

The Hogs have lost eight in a row against Texas A&M since the Aggies left the Big 12. The margin of victory for A&M has been seven-or-fewer points in five of the last six meetings. Arkansas leads the all-time series 41-32-3 and is 17-14-1 in College Station.

Why Bet on Arkansas? | 2020 NCAA Expert Analysis

The Razorbacks (2-2) upset Ole Miss 33-21 last time out on Oct. 17. It was the first time since 2016 that Arkansas won an SEC game in Fayetteville. Razorback cornerback Hudson Clark’s third interception of the game sealed the deal with 1:28 remaining in the game. He became the first SEC freshman to record three picks in a game since Mississippi State’s Darren Williams in 2003 against Troy.

Rebels quarterback Matt Corral threw six interceptions in the matchup. The Razorback offense scored just two touchdowns on the day, a 7-yard catch by Treylon Burks and a 1-yard touchdown rush by Rakeem Boyd, both of whom did not play the previous week. The Hogs offense was paced by Burks’ 11 catches for 137 yards and a score. It was the most yards by a Razorback receiver 2016 and most receptions since 2012. He also ran four times for 46 yards on the afternoon.

Grant Morgan led the Razorback defense with 19 tackles, 3 tackles for loss and a pick-six. The former walk-on was named SEC co-Defensive Player of the Week, Nagurski National Defensive Player of the Week and Bednarik Award Player of the Week. He leads the SEC and is fifth nationally averaging 13.0 tackles per game this season.

Arkansas scored 24 of its 33 points off the seven turnovers the Razorback defense created. Arkansas created seven turnovers — six interceptions and a fumble recovery. Not included in those turnover numbers were the two turnovers on downs. The last time Arkansas had at least six picks and a fumble recovery in the same game was 2003 versus Mississippi State (6 picks and 3 fumble recoveries),

Arkansas only allowed 200 passing yards and held Ole Miss to just 442 yards of total offense. Arkansas’ defense entered the game ranked 44th nationally limiting opponents to a 255.3 passing yards per game and 42nd in total defense (411.0 ypg). Ole Miss entered the game 4th in the NCAA in passing offense at 380.7 yards per game and 2nd in total offense (573.0 ypg). Ole Miss was just 4-of-16 on third downs.

Now, Arkansas’ defense ranks first in the country with 10 interceptions and is tied for first with three defensive scores. The Razorbacks lead the SEC in third down conversion defense (32.4%), red zone defense (61.1%), passing efficiency defense (109.16), turnovers gained (13) and turnover margin (1.50).

Why Bet on Texas A&M? | 2020 NCAA Expert Analysis

The Aggies (3-1) also last played on Oct. 17 and won 28-14 at Mississippi State. The Aggies limited MSU to minus-2 yards rushing and one offensive touchdown to win going away. The last time an A&M opponent finished the game with negative rushing yards was in 2004 when Wyoming finished with -3 yards.

The Bulldogs got a 60-yard interception return for a score early in the third quarter to trim the Aggie lead to 14-7 but A&M responded with a 4-play, 75-yard drive and never looked back after that. Texas A&M’s defense continually disrupted the line of scrimmage, finishing with six sacks and eight tackles for loss. Mississippi State had 217 yards of total offense. Isaiah Spiller ran for 114 yards and two touchdowns and Kellen Mond threw for two scores for the Aggies.

Texas A&M’s veteran offensive line has gone three straight games, including 120 pass attempts, since last giving up a sack. The only sack allowed by the unit this year came in the second quarter of the Vanderbilt game.

Mond moved to 25-13 for his career as a starter, which ties him with Kevin Murray (1983-86, 25-6-1) and David Walker (1973-74, 76-77, 25-9) for second on A&M’s all-time list.

Game Trends

  • Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
  • Razorbacks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
  • Razorbacks are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win.
  • Aggies are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games as a favorite.
  • Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.

Expert Prediction

Texas A&M 30, Arkansas 18
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