While the top-ranked Alabama almost assuredly won’t have any problems getting past the lowly Arkansas Razorbacks in their Week 9 SEC matchup on Saturday, the Crimson Tide face the tall task of trying to cover the chalk as a near, five-touchdown favorite without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. If you’re ready to find out if Alabama is the pick to win and cash in or whether the Razorbacks are the pick to cover the big spread, then let’s get to my expert Week 9 NCAAF pick on this pairing right now.
Arkansas vs Alabama 2019 College Football Lines, Betting Preview & Expert Pick
- When: Saturday, October 26, 2019 at 7:00 PM ET
- Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
- TV: ESPN
- Live Stream: WatchESPN
- College Football Week 9 Odds: Alabama -32 / Total: 55.5
- Rain: 22°C/71°F
- Humidity: 91%
- Precipitation: 60%
- Wind: 10 mph SSE
- Cloud Cover: 97%
- Type of Stadium: Open
Why Bet On Arkansas?
Despite the fact that Arkansas has won just two games and comes into this contest riding a four-game losing streak that includes an embarrassing 51-10 blowout loss to Auburn last weekend, there are a few good reasons to back the Razorbacks in Week 9. First, Arkansas will get a break because Alabama’s Heisman trophy-contending starting quarterback will be sidelined for this affair.
“They’ll have a plan for him, but as far as deficiencies, you’re the quarterback at Alabama or a program of that caliber, you’re a really good football player,” Arkansas head coach Chad Morris said of Jones. “He was playing behind a really good one, too.”
There’s also the fact that the Crimson Tide have been wildly inconsistent when it comes to covering the chalk this season. Last but not least, the Razorbacks have gone a near-perfect 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings against Alabama.
- Average Score For: 24.71
- Total Yards: 385.29
- Pass Yards: 250.43
- Rush Yards: 134.86
- Average Score Against: 30.71
- Total Yards: 412.86
- Pass Yards: 220
- Rush Yards: 192.86
Why Bet On Alabama?
Despite the fact that Tua Tagovailoa is out of the lineup for this contest, there are a bunch of good reasons to back the Crimson Tide in this matchup. First, Arkansas is completely awful and just lost by 41 points last weekend against No. 9 Auburn. Then, there’s the fact that Alabama averages 24 points per game more than Arkansas while simultaneously allowing 14.3 fewer points per game defensively. Then, there’s the fact that the Crimson Tide have won 12 straight in this SEC series including two straight by 32 points or more. Last but not least, Alabama has the huge edge in coaching and Nick Saban will certainly put sophomore quarterback Mac Jones in a good position to succeed.
“I think with Mac, it’s not a matter of arm talent or ability,” Saban said during a press conference. “It’s staying focused and being able to execute on a consistent basis and make good choices and decisions and not think about it too much and just take what the defense gives. When he’s done that, he’s been very, very effective, and that’s what we’ve worked with him on throughout the season.”Jones went 6-of-11 passing for 72 yards in the 35-13 victory over Tennessee and will be better prepared after getting a full week of practice repetitions with the first team. Last but not least, the Tide can always lean on their rushing attack behind running back Najee Harris (556 yards, 5.9 ypc).
- Average Score For: 48.71
- Total Yards: 513.43
- Pass Yards: 347
- Rush Yards: 166.43
- Average Score Against: 16.43
- Total Yards: 321
- Pass Yards: 190.57
- Rush Yards: 130.43
College Football Week 9 Betting Trends for Arkansas vs Alabama
- Arkansas is 2-7 ATS in the last 9 games
- Arkansas is 1-5 SU in the last 6 games
- The total went UNDER in 6 of Arkansas’ last 8 games.
- Alabama is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 games
- Alabama is 7-0 SU in the last 7 games
- The total went OVER in 8 of Alabama’s last 12 games
Arkansas vs Alabama Expert Analysis and Prediction
I have absolutely no doubt that Alabama is a lock to get the straight-up win in this contest and I’m going to say the Tide are the pick to cover the chalk based on the fact that they are simply the better team in all three phases – and it’s not even close! While Alabama has gone an uninspiring 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall and Arkansas has gone an encouraging 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home, I just don’t believe the Razorbacks are going to be able to keep pace with the Crimson Tide in this one.
Arkansas quarterback Nick Starkel has been out of the lineup and backup Ben Hicks has been pretty awful in completing just 50.4% of his passes while throwing a paltry two TD passes and one interception. Don’t worry about the huge 32-point spread. Go with the approximately 65 percent of public bettors that like the Crimson Tide to win and cover the chalk.
Pick: Alabama 49 Arkansas 14
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