Arkansas vs Mississippi State NCAA Football Odds Preview

Posted by Alex Murphy on November 21, 2015 in

You know, that old adage that says ‘You see the same people in life on your way up the ladder that you do on your way down’ certainly applies to the Week 12 SEC showdown between the Arkansas Razorbacks and the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Having said that, clearly the Arkansas Razorbacks are a team on the way up right now while the Mississippi State Bulldogs had their progress halted in a big way the last time out. Now, let’s find out why I believe the Razorbacks are virtual college football betting locks to win this Week 12 SEC showdown and bring home the bacon.

How To Bet The Bulldogs vs Razorbacks NCAAF Odds, TV & Game Info

When: 7:00 PM ET, Saturday, November 21, 2015
Where: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Arkansas
NCAAF Odds: Arkansas Razorbacks -3
Over/Under: 58

Betting on the Arkansas Razorbacks (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS)

The Razorbacks has caught fires at just the right time, winning four consecutive games, including their stunning 31-14 Week 11 beatdown over former national title contending LSU. Arkansas starting quarterback Brandon Allen completed 9 of 16 passes for 141 yards with one touchdown and one interception but it was running back Alex Collins that led the way to victory by rushing for 141 yards and two scores on just 16 carries. “Alex responds to challenges, man,” Bielema said. “He’s a fighter. I love him to death, a kid who I think is giving us his all every day, every way. I jumped him pretty hard (after that fumble). I said ‘Either get your mind right or we’re going to find another option.'”

The Razorbacks also held LSU star running back Leonard Fournette to just 91 rushing yards in the win and kept elusive quarterback Brandon Harris in check for the majority of the game as well. “I thought we did a nice job of keeping (Harris) in the pocket, and if he did escape, he didn’t escape for free yardage,” Arkansas coach Bret Bielema said. “That was fun to watch.”

Arkansas is ranked 34th in scoring (34.4 ppg) and 73rd in points allowed (27.9 ppg).

Betting on the Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS)

Gifted dual-threat quarterback Dak Prescott has basically single-handedly carried the Bulldogs all season long. Too bad that his ‘one-man-gang’ effort wasn’t nearly enough to overcome the Alabama Crimson Tide in Mississippi State’s humbling 31-6 Week 11 smackdown at the hands of the Tide. Prescott completed 22 of 43 passes for 300 yards but failed to throw a touchdown pass while getting limited to just 14 rushing yards on a whopping 26 carries and getting sacked a whopping nine times. “I don’t know if they were doing anything special but just beating guys up there,” Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen said. “I don’t think we did a great job of protecting the quarterback. One of the things you want to do is protect the quarterback to be able to throw the football. We still threw for over 300 yards.”

The Bulldogs also got overwhelmed by Alabama running  back derrick Henry en route to 204 rushing yards and two scores. “As far as moving the ball and getting to the red zone, we did pretty good,” Mississippi State receiver Fred Ross said. “It was once we got there we stalled, and against a great team like Alabama that can not happen.”

Mississippi State ranks 51st in scoring (31.8 ppg) and a stellar 19th in points allowed (18.6 ppg).

Mississippi State at Arkansas Game Analysis

I really liked Bret Bielema’s Arkansas Razorbacks at the end of last season and coming into the 2015 campaign and even though they struggled mightily early this season, they now look much more like the team I expected. Having said that, I’m also of the mindset that Arkansas is now a virtual lock to win and cash in against Dak Prescott and the Bulldogs in this contest. While Mississippi State has gone 13-5 ATS in their last 18 conference games, the Bulldogs are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an SU loss of more than 20 points.

Arkansas, on the other hand, has gone a perfect  5-0 ATS in their last five conference games, 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and an incendiary 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games against a team with a winning road record. With the Home team in this SEC rivalry going 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings and Mississippi State going 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against the Razorbacks, I’m thinking this Week 12 matchup is a virtual lock!

My Betting Pick: Arkansas 31 Mississippi State 21