Is Oklahoma a Safe Week 7 Pick in the College Football Odds vs. Texas?

Baylor Is Not a Safe NCAAF Odds Pick Against Oklahoma This Saturday

Written by on September 20, 2017

Oklahoma and Baylor have played some entertaining football over the past few years, but this Saturday’s game between the No. 3 Sooners and winless Bears won’t be remotely close. The College Football odds for Week 4 have the Bears as clear underdogs, especially due to the fact that they haven’t a single game yet this season and seems that won’t be changing anytime soon for them. This game is a no brainer for sure if you’re looking into NCAAF odds for this weekend.

Oklahoma at Baylor NCAAF Odds & Betting Analysis for Week 4

When: Saturday, 6:30 PM ETWhere:  McLane StadiumTV: Fox Sports 1Stream: Fox Sports GoRadio: KOKC-AM 1520 (Oklahoma) / 1660 ESPN Radio (Baylor)Opening NCAAF Odds: Sooners -27.5 (62.5)

Latest NCAAF Odds Trends

  • Oklahoma is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games
  • Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in the last 5 games
  • The total went UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma’s last 9 games
  • Baylor is 2-8 ATS in the last 10 games
  • Baylor is 1-9 SU in the last 10 games
  • The total went UNDER in 4 of Baylor’s last 5 games

Why Bet on Oklahoma?

The Sooners (3-0) are unbeaten and have a Heisman candidate in QB Baker Mayfield, a two-time finalist for the award. They also have the nation’s longest winning streak at 13 games.OU is coming off a 56-14 home win over Tulane, outgaining the Green Wave 631 yards to 291 (10.2 yards per play to 3.9). Mayfield threw for 331 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. Five of the Sooners’ seven offensive TDs were scored by first-year players. The Sooners averaged 10.18 yards per play, their most ever on Owen Field.After allowing touchdowns on Tulane’s first two possessions, OU did not surrender any more points. The Green Wave amassed 157 yards in the first quarter (7.9 per play), but was held to 134 yards the rest of the night (2.5 per play). In the second half, OU allowed just 67 yards on 31 plays (2.2 average). Tulane finished with 54 passing yards.

College Football Week 4 SU Picks & Predictions

OU’s 12-game true road winning streak is the longest active streak in the country and tied for the third longest in school history. The program’s only longer streaks were 14 games (1973-76) and 24 games (1953-58). Only three other teams own an active streak longer than four games (Alabama and Clemson have won 11 straight true road games and Washington seven).Oklahoma has won 16 consecutive Big 12 Conference games, the second longest streak in school history (won 17 from 2003 to 2005) and the fifth longest since the league formed in 1996 (Kansas State holds the record with 21 straight from 1997 to 1999).Finally, OU is 14-6 (.700) all-time in Big 12 openers. It has won its last four Big 12 openers and eight of its last nine. The Sooners are also 15-5 all-time in their first Big 12 road game of a season (won last six).

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 47.67
  • Total Yards: 599
  • Rush Yards: 160.33
  • Passing Yards: 438.67
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 12.33
  • Total Yards: 269
  • Rush Yards: 159
  • Passing Yards: 110.33

Why Bet on Baylor?

The Bears were expected to struggle this season with all the off-field issues and the coaching change, but winless? Baylor comes off a 34-20 loss against Duke. Baylor is 0-3 after starting the year with losses to Liberty and UTSA. The Bears are off to their worst start since going 0-4 in 1999, and they’ve shown few reasons for on-field optimism in the program’s first year under Matt Rhule.On the bright side, the defense improved a bit vs. Duke. Baylor has allowed an average of 33 points to three opponents who aren’t exactly world-beaters. Baylor’s pass defense ranks 96th and the run defense ranks 84th. The Blue Devils did finish with 439 yards, including 246 on the ground, but the bulk of that came on three touchdown runs — 50 and 65 yards by Shaun Wilson and a 34-yarder by Brittain Brown.Is Baylor a safe bet in Week 4 against Oklahoma?Through the first six quarters of the season, opposing offenses had converted on 22-of-34 third downs, for an alarming success rate of 64.7 percent, and had zero turnovers. But over the last six quarters, the Bears have turned that around to the tune of 4-for-24 (16.7 percent) on third down.Making his first start of the season and fifth of his career, sophomore quarterback Zach Smith was just 12-of-34 for 263 yards, but he hit on TD passes of 44 yards to Denzel Mims and 73 and 79 yards to Chris Platt. Those three plays accounted for 196 of the Bears’ 320 yards total offense. Other than a pair of 17-yard runs by Smith and Dru Dixon and a 15-yarder by John Lovett, they gained eight yards total on the other 24 rushes.

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 25
  • Total Yards: 375.33
  • Rush Yards: 149.33
  • Passing Yards: 226
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 33
  • Total Yards: 466.33
  • Rush Yards: 201.33
  • Passing Yards: 265

Series History

Oklahoma owns a 23-3 (.885) all-time record against Baylor and is 11-2 vs. the Bears in Waco. In the Big 12 era, the Sooners hold an 18-3 series advantage (9-2 on the road).
  • Total Meetings: 26
  • First Meeting: October 21st, 1901. Waco, Texas
  • Last Meeting: November 12th, 2016. Norman, Oklahoma
  • All-Time Series: Oklahoma 23-3-0
  • Largest Margin of Victory: Oklahoma 56-7 (2000)
  • Longest Win Streak: Oklahoma 20 (1901-2010)
  • Current Win Streak: Oklahoma 2 (2015-2016)

NCAAF Odds Pick & Expert Prediction

I would give more than 28 points but while it’s at 27.5, I would take Oklahoma. Baylor is simply not doing well at all and with three losses already under their belt, it’s going to be a tough matchup to overcome. Go over the total.
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