Baylor at Texas NCAA Football Week 7 Odds & Analysis

Baylor at Texas NCAA Football Week 7 Odds & Analysis

Written by on October 12, 2018

There is a tendency to immediately write a team off after seeing them lose in the opening week of the college football season. This is especially true when that loss comes at the hands of a lesser opponent. You look at 1-loss teams like Miami and Washington and cut them a little slack when you see that their opening week losses came at the hands of SEC opponents who were considered to be among the favorites to make a run at the SEC title game.

A little less sympathy was granted to the Texas Longhorns, as they went down to Maryland team that they really should have beaten. A Week 1 loss need not be totally devastating, though, with all 3 of those teams going unbeaten since that point. It is more than fair to suggest that the Longhorns have looked the best of the lot in the last 5 weeks, but you are only ever as good as your last game.

Texas will host their in-state rivals, the Baylor Bears, this weekend as a 14-point favorite, with the point total set at 60 ½.

Baylor at Texas NCAA Football Week 7 Odds & Analysis

Weather Forecast

  • Chance of Thunderstorm: 28°C/82°F
  • Humidity: 72%
  • Precipitation: 46%
  • Wind: 11 mph S
  • Cloud Cover: 80%
  • Type of Stadium: Open

Why bet on the Baylor Bears?

The Bears are 4-2 as they enter this game, and while they have all the offensive tools required to beat Texas, they very often struggle against ranked opposition. They lost 40-27 to Duke when the Blue Devils were in the top 25 and were pounded 66-33 by Oklahoma a couple of weeks ago. As you can see from those scores, though, the Baylor Bears always seem to find a way to get point on the board.

You have to imagine that the offense will need to be clicking this weekend versus the high-powered Longhorns. Winning has not come easy for this team, as they have just 6 wins in their last 25 games. They are also just 4-16 SU in their last 20 meetings with Texas. Covering has also been an issue, with the Bears going just 1-4-1 ATS in their 6 games this season.

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 35.83
  • Total Yards: 499.50
  • Pass Yards: 325.50
  • Rush Yards: 174
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 32.33
  • Total Yards: 411
  • Pass Yards: 217.83
  • Rush Yards: 193.17

Why bet on the Texas Longhorns?

The Texas Longhorns are back in a big way, with many college football fans sitting up and starting to take notice after they beat the Oklahoma Sooners 48-45 last weekend. That win helped Texas jump all the way up to #9 in the national rankings, but they also know that they will sink like a stone this week if they don’t follow up that big win with another one here.

Texas have covered the spread 3 times this season, but seem to do better as a longshot, covering in both games where they carried that label. As good as these two are offensively, they have not played in a lot of high-scoring games versus one another, with 4 of the last 5 meetings going UNDER, a trend that I believe might just change this weekend.

 

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 32
  • Total Yards: 414
  • Pass Yards: 256.83
  • Rush Yards: 157.17
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 24
  • Total Yards: 366.33
  • Pass Yards: 233.50
  • Rush Yards: 132.83

Baylor at Texas NCAA Football Week 7 Betting Trends

  • Baylor is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Baylor is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baylor’s last 5 games
  • Texas is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games
  • Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 19 of Texas’s last 25 games

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction for Baylor at Texas

Things tend to get a little more fired up when you have an in-state rivalry in play, so look for these two to come out with guns blazing. I like the Longhorns to win and cover, and I also like the OVER in this one.

NCAA Football Week 7 Pick: Baylor Bears 23 Texas Longhorns 39

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