Baylor vs Texas NCAA Football Odds Game Preview

Posted by Daniel Strum on December 3, 2015 in

With their hopes of reaching the four-team College Football Playoff now completely kaput, the high-scoring Baylor Bears will look to take their frustration out on the mediocre Texas Longhorns when they square off in a Week 14 Big 12 battle that will now determine their bowl game destination. While winning their regular season finale may not be much of a task for the Bears against their over matched in-state rivals, covering the college football spread as huge home favorites could be tougher than expected. Now, let’s find out if Baylor can cash in while finishing off their 2015 regular season campaign in style.

A Closer Look at the Longhorns @ Bears NCAA Football Odds & Game Information

When: Saturday, December 5,12:00 PM ET
Where: McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas
NCAAF Odds: Baylor -20.5

Why Bet on the Baylor Bears (9-2 SU, 5-6 ATS)

The Baylor Bears lost any chance they had of winning a national championship by losing to conference rival TCU 28-21 in two overtimes on Saturday.

With starting running back Shock Linwood out, backup running back Devin Chafin led the Bears with 119 yards and two scores on 26 carries, third-string quarterback Chris Johnson was limited to 7-for-24 passing for just 62 yards in the loss. Baylor allowed TCU Heisman Trophy candidate Trevone Boykin to toss two touchdown passes while rushing for another. Now, the Bears will look to reach the double-digit win mark for the fourth time in the last five seasons.

Why Bet on the Texas Longhorns (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS)

The Longhorns have dropped two straight and come into their regular season finale off a heartbreaking 48-45 loss against Texas Tech on Saturday while failing t cover the spread as a 1-point home favorite. Texas signal-caller Tyrone Swoopes replaced redshirt freshman quarterback Jerrod Heard after the starter suffered a head injury in the second quarter. The Longhorns’ latest loss gave head coach Charlie Strong his second straight losing campaign. “You’re looking at a young group. I think they will bounce back and learn and will only make them stronger,” Strong said. “I was proud of how hard our players kept fighting, that’s what you want to see.”

The Horns got a stupendous effort from running back Chris Warren III as the freshman rushed for an insane 276 yards and four touchdowns on 25 carries. “I told Chris Warren `I guarantee you will have a breakout game,” Strong said. “We knew what we had with him. Just a big strong physical runner.” Unfortunately, Swoopes was limited to just 9 of 18 passing for 52 yards and one interception. The Longhorns also allowed Texas Tech running back DeAndre Washington to rush for 172 yards and two scores in the loss.

My Expert Texas @ Baylor NCAA Football Betting Game Analysis:

Let’s get started by saying that there is absolutely no way that the Baylor Bears fail to cover the spread in this Week 14 Big 12 battle. Having said that, I also don’t think the Bears can cover the spread as huge double-digit favorites in this contest. First and foremost, Texas has looked a lot better ever since they named young signal-caller Jerrod Heard as the team’s unquestioned starter about midway through the season and they’ve been pretty competitive ever since. The Longhorns have lost their last two games by a combined five points and Baylor doesn’t have quite the same explosive offense now that they’re down to their third-string quarterback.

Texas may be just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games and 0-5 ATS in their last five road games, but Baylor is just 1-4 ATS in their last five games and 2-4 ATS in their last half-dozen home games while the road team in this Big 12 rivalry has gone 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. I know the Longhorns aren’t in the same caliber of elite programs that the Bears are right now, but I like them to cover the spread as huge road dogs!

My Pick: Baylor 30 Texas 21