The streaking 18th-ranked Oregon Ducks will look to knock off the lowly Oregon State Beavers when the two longtime Pac-12 rivals square off on Saturday. And while winning the game outright likely won’t be very hard, it remains to be seen whether the explosive Ducks can cover the College Football spread as insane, nearly five-touchdown home favorites. Let’s find out now!
How To Bet The Beavers vs. Ducks NCAA Football Spread & Game Preview
When: Friday, November 27, 3:30 PM ET
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
NCAAAF Odds: Oregon -33.5
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) November 23, 2015
Betting on the Oregon State Beavers (2-9 SU, 2-9 ATS)
Oregon State got blown out of the water in its 52-7 Week 12 loss against Washington while never coming close to covering the spread as a 14-point home underdog. Quarterback Nick Mitchell returned after getting knocked out of the Beavers’ Week 11 affair at California, but went 0-for-7 before being replaced by backup Marcus McMaryion, who completed eight of 16 passes for 109 yards with one touchdown and one interception as the Beavers were limited to just seven third quarter points.
Oregon State went 3-for-11 (27%) on third downs and held the ball for less than 19 full minutes while allowing the Huskies to rush for 271 yards in the defeat. The Beavers are ranked a dismal 121st in scoring (16.9 ppg) and equally discouraging 108th in points allowed (35.6 ppg).
Betting on the Oregon Ducks (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS)
Quarterback Vernon Adams and the Oregon Ducks looked as good as they have all season in dispatching USC 48-28 on Saturday to easily cover the NCAAF betting line as 3.5-point home favorites. Adams threw a school-record six touchdown passes to six different receivers in the win while running back Royce Freeman added 147 rushing yards on 20 carries. “We have weapons everywhere,” Adams said. “On our two-deep and three-deep. We have got some guys. I didn’t even know I threw six touchdowns today, I am just happy we got this win today.” Oregon won despite having the ball for just over 25 full minutes and going 2-for-8 (25%) on third downs.
Adams, a senior transfer, had conversations with former starter and 2014 Heisman winner, Marcus Mariota throughout the game with the former star visiting his team after playing on Thursday night. “This weekend I talked to him more than ever,” Adams said. “I met him during my visit and in spring ball and we have texted back and forth, but this weekend we talked a lot more. He told me to have fun out there, stay confident, play your game and let it loose. After each series, he was right there and we were talking, so it was good.”
Oregon is ranked an impressive eighth in scoring (42.4 ppg) but awful 112th in points allowed (36.3 ppg).
My Expert Oregon State vs Oregon Game Analysis and Betting Pick
While I hate high points spreads like this and often find them to be a bit disrespectful to some teams, I certainly do not believe that is the case for Oregon State in this Week 13 Pac-12 pairing and apparently, 52 percent of public bettors agree! Not only has Oregon State lost eight straight games, but the Beavers have gone 1-7 ATS in doing so while also compiling a dismal 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games. Conversely, Oregon has won each of their last five games while posting a perfect 5-0 ATS mark along the way while scoring at least 38 points in each contest.
Oregon State has also gone 5-17 ATS in their last 22 conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home while Oregon has compiled an encouraging 16-5 ATS mark in their last 21 games overall and 20-8-2 ATS mark in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. While the Beavers have gone 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road dates against the Ducks and the road team in this Pac-12 pairing is 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine meetings, I can’t bring myself to go against the explosive Ducks in this contest after seeing both of these teams’ performances in Week 12.
Back Oregon to win and cover the huge spread.
My Betting Pick: Oregon 56 Oregon State 14