Best Game Total Picks for this Week’s NCAA Football Bowl Games
Posted by Daniel Strum on Wednesday,December 23, 2015 1:25, EDT in
In this edition of our College Football betting bowl previews, we will take a look at the best game total picks to consider in this week’s college football odds. Get ready for a succinct analysis and free college football total picks for these games, which are specially prepared for you below.
Best Game Total Picks for this Week’s NCAAF Bowl Games
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl: Middle Tennessee vs. Western Michigan
When: Thursday, December 24 at Noon, ESPN
NCAAF Odds: OVER/UNDER 63
Analysis: Western Michigan fans cashed in slightly more on the OVER side this season at 6-5-1 and the average total score of their games was 63.3 points per game, which is interestingly in the ballpark of this Bahamas Bowl set at 63. In terms of scoring, the Broncos averaged 35.2 PPG and gave up 28.1 PPG. And in totals that closed in the 60s, the Broncos notably went 2-1 UNDER. Conversely, the Blue Raiders were healthier on the UNDER side, cashing 8 UNDER totals in their 12 games this season. The biggest reason for this was that freshman quarterback, Brent Stockwell ,struggled to find efficiency in his game despite playing for a head coach who happens to be his biological father.
To close the season, Middle Tennessee went 5-0 UNDER, holding its opponents to just 10.2 PPG in that five-game stretch. For totals that closed in the 60s, the Blue Raiders went 3-1 UNDER. As things stand, this bowl looks set for an averagely-scoring affair, at best. Western Michigan has the potential to blow up the total, but the Blue Raiders have perfected the art of slowing down and forcing errors off its opponents, meaning a pacified scoring affair should be in the books here.
Pick: UNDER 63
Hawai’i Bowl: San Diego State vs. Cincinnati
When: Thursday, December 26, 8:00 pm ET, ESPN
NCAAF Odds: OVER/UNDER 56.5
Analysis: Cincinnati’s Gunner Kiel was a real gunslinger this season, throwing for 373.1 yards per game (4th nationally), which helped the Bearcats to average a healthy 559 total yards per contest on the year (5th nationally). Further analysis shows that the Bearcats averaged 36.1 PPG scoring, but were poor defensively, allowing around 30 PPG. On face value, Cincy’s numbers suggest that we could be in for a scoreboard littered with scores. The problem, however, is that they’ll be facing a San Diego State team that specialized in posting UNDER, finishing the season with a 7-6 UNDER mark. To their credit, the Aztecs scored 31.4 PPG, but surrendered just 17.2 PPG on the year. More notably, San Diego State’s highest total on the year was 59, and when you survey all their totals on the year in the 50s region, you find that they went 3-1 UNDER.
So, the question is; do you trust Kiel and his offense to light it up, or go with coach Rocky Long’s defense to put the clamps on Cincinnati? Given the Aztecs (-1) are favored by the Oddsmakers to win this game as the stronger team, I am inclined to believe that their stellar defense is the reason for that big endorsement, so I’ll go with the latter option of San Diego’s defense sticking to the basics and channeling another UNDER total.
Pick: UNDER 56.5
When: Saturday, December 26, 2:00 pm ET, CBS
NCAAF Odds: OVER/UNDER 62
Analysis: Given the manner in which Washington State QB Luke Falk and Miami FL QB Brad Kaaya have been torturing teams with their stellar passing games, this game certainly merits to be anticipated as a high-scoring game. Thanks to his FBS-best 387.8 passing yards per game average on 70.7 percent passing, Falk authored a season in which the Washington averaged a whopping 397 YPG passing (the best mark in the NCAA), so his full fitness for this game should guarantee mega aerial yards and points for the Air Raid offense.
Kaaya, on the other hand, was probably not as efficient as Falk, but his average passing yards per game (274.5) topped the ACC, meaning he shouldn’t be written off from having a big game as well. Added to the fact that both teams also have talented running backs that can pound the ground hard with meticulous efficiency, I believe your chances of getting paid in the NCAAF betting lines will be great if you bet on this game to blow the 62 points for an OVER total.
Pick: OVER 62.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Indiana vs. Duke
When: Saturday, December 26, 3:30 PM ET, ABC
NCAAF Odds: OVER/UNDER 71
Analysis: The 6-6 Hoosiers were one of the most fluid attacking teams in the nation this season, averaging 36.2 points per game scoring, and posting 41 points or more in five games this year. Unfortunately for them, their defense was poor, allowing 37.1 points per contest on the year, including four games where they allowed 47 or more points. Essentially, that’s the reason Indiana finished the season with a 10-2 OVER total record, including six straight OVER totals in their last six games where there was a combined average of 83.5 points scored per game. Meanwhile, Duke went OVER the total in five of their last six contests, and those games averaged a combined total of 66.8 points scored per game. Logically and statistically speaking, this game therefore looks highly likely to deliver another high-scoring OVER total.
Pick: OVER 71.
