2018 NCAAF Championship Game Betting Analysis: Alabama vs. Georgia

Can Georgia Cover Huge NCAAF Week 10 Spread vs. South Carolina?

Written by Henry Watkins on Wednesday,November 1, 2017 1:40, EDT

We may not know all the elements that go into the decisions made by the College Football Playoff Committee, but we do know that strength of schedule is pretty huge. There were a lot of people who were stunned to see the huge NCAAF Week 10 spread favorite Georgia Bulldogs ahead of Alabama in the first official rankings, but the reality is that one game may have made all the difference.

The opening week win that Alabama had over Florida State looked to be huge at that time, but given how the season has gone for the Seminoles, it suddenly doesn’t look at that impressive. The same cannot be said for the road win that Georgia had over Notre Dame in the early part of the season. The Fighting Irish have gone unbeaten since then, and are a legitimate playoff threat. If those two games are what separates the SEC giants, then no-one should have an issue with Georgia being ranked #1.

Whether they stay there will depend on how they close out the season, and it all starts this weekend when they welcome the South Carolina Gamecocks into Sanford Stadium. The Bulldogs are a 24 ½ point favorite for this one, with the point total set at 45 ½.

Gamecocks vs. Bulldogs NCAAF Week 10 Spread & Game Preview

  • When: Saturday, November 4 at 3:30 PM EST
  • Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens
  • TV: CBS
  • Radio: 107.5 FM (South Carolina) / 750 AM (Georgia)
  • Live StreamSEC Network
  • NCAAF Week 10 Spread: Georgia Bulldogs -24.5 (Over/Under at 45.5)

Weather Forecast

  • Partly Cloudy: 24°C/76°F
  • Humidity: 63%
  • Precipitation: 15%
  • Cloud Cover: 46%
  • Wind: 2 mph WSW
  • Stadium Type: Open

Bedlam Series: Oklahoma vs. OSU College Football Lines & Betting Pick

Recent Head to Head (Last 10 Games)

  • Record: 5-5
  • Score: South Carolina 25.90 / Georgia 27.80
  • Rush Yards: South Carolina 155.00 / Georgia 172.10
  • Pass Attempts: South Carolina 29.00 / Georgia 26.20
  • Completion Percentage: South Carolina 60.69 / Georgia 59.92
  • Passing Yards: South Carolina 209.80 / Georgia 196.80
  • Total Yards: South Carolina 364.8 / Georgia 368.9
  • Turnovers: South Carolina 1.30 / Georgia 1.10

Why bet on the South Carolina Gamecocks?

A lot of people are already talking about an SEC Championship Game between Georgia and Alabama, but South Carolina is still in the picture. They are 3-1 in conference play, and a win here would put them in the driver’s seat in the SEC East. The lone loss in conference play for the Gamecocks came against Texas A&M, and while they have put together 3-straight wins since then, those victories have not been altogether convincing.

The confidence level on this team is high, though, to the point where some of their players are already calling out the passing game of the Bulldogs. The Florida Gators went with a similar tactic prior to last week’s meeting with the Dawgs, and we all know how that turned out. The Gamecocks are just 2-5 in their last 7 visits to Athens but are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games there, so they may be able to keep this one closer than the large spread suggests.

Team Statistics

Offense

  • Average Score For: 26.25
  • Total Yards: 343.38
  • Rush Yards: 123.50
  • Passing Yards: 219.88

Defense

  • Average Score Against: 20.25
  • Total Yards: 382.5
  • Rush Yards: 137.62
  • Passing Yards: 244.88

Why bet on the Georgia Bulldogs?

There are a couple of things that stand out in this season’s version of the Georgia Bulldogs. The first is that they have suddenly discovered how to win the big games that eluded them in the past, and the second is that they are a very quiet bunch. Second-year head coach Kirby Smart is doing a fantastic job of keeping his young charges in check. Even with the news that the Bulldogs were ranked #1 in the first rankings from the Playoff Committee, the reactions out of Athens were almost nothing.

According to the NCAAF Week 10 Spread, the Bulldogs are huge favorites to beat South Carolina.

This is a team that appears to have its eyes very much on the prize, and if they are to finish the season as #1, they are going to need to continue to rely on an amazing run game and some stellar defensive play. Georgia is currently on a run where they have won their last 7 SEC games, going 6-1 ATS in those match-ups. Sanford Stadium has been a fortress for them this season, and they will want to keep it that way.

Team Statistics

Offense

  • Average Score For: 38.12
  • Total Yards: 446.62
  • Rush Yards: 284.00
  • Passing Yards: 162.62

Defense

  • Average Score Against: 11.88
  • Total Yards: 252.13
  • Rush Yards: 94.75
  • Passing Yards: 157.38

Latest NCAAF Week 10 Spread Trends

  • Gamecocks are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games
  • Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
  • Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
  • Bulldogs are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games at home
  • Georgia is 5-10-2 ATS in its last 17 games when playing South Carolina

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

Historically, the meetings between these two have been tight affairs, but I think that all goes out the window this weekend. Georgia can eliminate the Gamecocks from SEC East contention this weekend, which would put them one step closer to the SEC Championship Game. They will not miss out on that opportunity, so definitely they will cover the huge NCAAF Week 10 spread.

Score: South Carolina Gamecocks 13 – Georgia Bulldogs 42