Can Penn State Avoid Late Heroics to Cover NCAAF Spread Against Indiana?

Can Penn State Avoid Late Heroics to Cover NCAAF Spread vs. Indiana?

Written by on September 27, 2017

Can the fourth-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions avoid the need for late heroics for the second week in a row to cover the NCAAF Spread and take down the Indiana Hoosiers in their Week 5 Big Ten brawl? Take under consideration that both are looking to remain unbeaten and keep their legitimate national championship hopes alive.Thanks to my expert analysis on the latest College Football odds and accompanying free pick, you’re about to find out which team is going to prevail.

Indiana (2-1) at Penn State (4-0) Preview & Betting Analysis

When: Saturday, September 30, 2017, 3:30 PM ETWhere: Beaver StadiumTV: BTNRadio: 105.1 FM (Indiana) / 106.1 FM (Penn State)Live StreamBig Ten NetworkNCAAF Spread: Penn State Nittany Lions -17.5Total: 68

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Recent Head to Head (Last 10 Games)

  • Record: Penn State Nittany Lions owns the lead 9 to 1
  • Score: Indiana 20.30 / Penn State 31.40
  • Rush Yards: Indiana 91,70 / Penn State 153.70
  • Pass Attempts: Indiana 41 / Penn State 31.5
  • Completion Percentage: Indiana 54.88 / Penn State 57.18
  • Passing Yards: Indiana 245.60 / Penn State 274.40
  • Total Yards: Indiana 337.3 / Penn State 428.1
  • Turnovers: Indiana 2 / Penn State 2

Series History

  • Total Meetings:
  • First Meeting: November 6th, 1993. State College, Pennsylvania
  • Last Meeting: November 12th, 2016. Bloomington, Indiana
  • All-Time Series: Penn State 19-1-0
  • Largest Margin of Victory: Penn State 52-7 (2003)
  • Longest Win Streak: Penn State 16 (1993-2012)
  • Current Win Streak: Penn State 3 (2014-2016)

Why Bet on the Indiana Hoosiers Odds at +17.5?

Indiana spanked Georgia Southern 52-17 on Saturday to cash in as a whopping 21.5-point home as quarterback Richard Lagow completed 8 of 13 passes for 130 yards and one touchdown while running back Morgan Ellison rushed for stellar 186 yards and two scores on 25 carries.“It was a game where we were supposed to win,” said Indiana first-year coach Tom Allen, “and I felt like our players prepared and played in a manner that you expect them to.”The bad news is that Indiana is last in the Big Ten — and 102nd among 129 FBS teams — in rushing defense, allowing 196.3 yards a game.

Team Statistics

Offense

  • Average Score For: 35.67
  • Total Yards: 407.33
  • Rush Yards: 140
  • Passing Yards: 267.33

Defense

  • Average Score Against: 27.67
  • Total Yards: 428.33
  • Rush Yards: 196.33
  • Passing Yards: 232

Why Bet on the Penn State Nittany Lions Odds at -17.5

Penn State need a touchdown pass on the game’s final play to get past Iowa 21-19 in Week 4 as quarterback Trace McSorley completed 31 of 48 passes for 284 yards with one touchdown and one interception while running back Saquon Barkley rushed 28 times for 211 yards and one touchdown while adding 12 receptions out of the backfield for additional 94 yards.Barkley was named the Maxwell Award Player of the Week after accumulating school-record 358 all-purpose yards against the Hawkeyes. McSorley hit wide receiver Juwan Johnson with a 7-yard TD strike on the game’s final play to get the win.“I started out that game at 45 years old,” head coach James Franklin joked about the harrowing finish, “and I finished the game at 55.”Can Penn State cover the NCAAF Spread in Week 5?“I think if you look at any really good season, there’s always one game like that,” Franklin added, “where you have to gut it out and find a way to win. And our team’s gritty and we found a way to do it.”Penn State will need to do a better job in the red zone after getting there four times but coming away with just one touchdown.“When you get into the red zone, all the details are magnified because you’ve just got less field and you’ve got less space,” Franklin said. “We’ve just got to do a better job with those things, which I know we will.”

Team Statistics

Offense

  • Average Score For: 40.5
  • Total Yards: 496.5
  • Rush Yards: 214
  • Passing Yards: 282.5

Defense

  • Average Score Against: 8.25
  • Total Yards: 273.5
  • Rush Yards: 115
  • Passing Yards: 158.5

Latest Betting Trends for NCAAF Week 5

  • Hoosiers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
  • Hoosiers are 7-18 SU in their last 25 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana’s last 7 games on the road
  • Nittany Lions are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games
  • Nittany Lions are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 15 of Penn State’s last 22 games

Expert Analysis and Prediction

Penn State has won three straight against Indiana and simply has too much talent on both sides of the ball than their Big Ten rivals to keep up with them in this Week 5 matchup.More importantly, the Hoosiers will be facing a superstar in Saquon Barkley that is clearly ‘super special’ and will likely be a top-five pick in next year’s NFL Draft.I know that Indiana is 5-2 against the NCAAF Spread in their last 7 road games, but the Hoosiers are also just 1-4 against the NCAAF Spread in their last 5 conference games. Penn State has gone 7-0-2 against the NCAAF Spread in their last 9 home games, 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 conference games and 12-3-2 against the NCAAF Spread in their last 17 games overall. I’m thinking Penn State’s big scare last Saturday will have them coming out in this Week 5 Big Ten brawl looking to get in the end zone early and often while helping them to cover the spread with just a bit of room to spare!Pick: Penn State -16.5
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