Central Florida at Houston Betting Pick & Spread

Posted by Michael Hunt on Wednesday,October 26, 2016 5:58, EST in

Remember not too long ago when the University of Houston was the darling of college football and a possibility of crashing the College Football Playoff as a Group of 5 school? That’s all gone now as the Cougars are really struggling and have fallen out of the Top 25. They probably won’t even win their own division in the American Athletic Conference. UH hosts Central Florida on Saturday with the Knights very capable of pulling the upset in college football betting.

How To Bet Central Florida at Houston NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

When: Saturday, Oct. 29, Noon ET
Where: TDECU Stadium, Houston
TV: ESPNU
Stream: WatchESPN
Radio: Central Florida / Houston
Opening NCAA Football Lines: Houston -9 (58)

Why Bet on Central Florida?

The Knights (4-3) come off a 24-16 win at UConn. UCF spotted UConn 13 points to open the game, then outscored the Huskies 24-3. True freshman quarterback McKenzie Milton passed for three touchdowns. He completed 29-of- 45 passes for 317 yards to lead the offense. One of his 29 passes completed actually went to himself. In the second quarter, he broke the pocket and looked to complete a pass. It bounced off a defender and right back to Milton.

Including himself, Milton completed passes to 10 different receivers. His passing total was the most yards passing for a UCF quarterback in nearly two years. It was the most since Justin Holman threw for 336 vs. Temple on Oct. 25, 2014. It was UCF’s biggest comeback win in two years.

Matthew Wright connected on a career-long 50-yard field goal early in the fourth quarter. The last time a UCF player made a field goal of 50 or more yards was Shawn Moffitt against UConn on Oct. 26, 2013. Wright extended his career-long streak of made extra points, making all three attempts to improve to 41-for- 41 in his career.

Third downs should be key here. Houston is No. 13 in the nation and No. 2 in the AAC in converting third downs. Meanwhile, the Knights are No. 8 (NCAA)/No. 1 (AAC) in stopping opponents on third down. Houston is stout against the run, allowing just 98.5 yards per game on the ground, which ranks No. 6 in the nation and No. 1 in the AAC. UCF is rushing for 189.9 yards per game (No. 51/No. 5).

Why Bet on Houston?

The Cougars (6-2) lost to Navy two weeks ago. Then they lost out on Big 12 expansion. Then last Saturday, in the biggest upset of the AAC season, they lost to inspired SMU in Dallas. SMU sacked Cougars’ quarterback Greg Ward Jr. seven times and limited him to 241 yards passing, which is almost 100 under his average, and just 3 rushing yards. One of the sacks was for an 18-yard loss to the Houston 22 when coach Tom Herman went for it on fourth down trailing 28-14 early in the fourth quarter. The Cougars lost two fumbles in the first quarter and never got their high-powered offense going. Houston was outgained 406-303.

“The trip to Dallas was a nightmare,” Herman said. “SMU was fresh and motivated, ready to play. … We have a bunch of pleasers and perfectionists on our team and I did not do a very good job in training them how to respond to adversity, how to respond better to the other team’s best shot.”

With two touchdown passes, Ward tied Chuck Clements (1993-96) for sixth all-time with 43 career touchdown passes. With 241 passing yards, Ward moved into sixth all-time with 7,327 career passing yards, passing Chuck Clements (7,112 yards; 1993-96). Ward is fourth nationally in total offense (370.9 yards per game) and is 12th nationally in passing (311.3 yards) while rushing for 59.6 yards per game.

Houston is the only team nationally in the top 10 for both offensive 1st downs (No. 10 – 26.0 per game) defensive 1st downs (No. 8 – 15.3). Saturday marks the eighth meeting between Houston and UCF on the gridiron. The Knights lead the all- time series 5-2. Houston blew out UCF 59-10 in last year’s UCF Homecoming game. Prior to last season’s blowout, there had only been one other double-digit margin of victory (a 51-31 win by Houston in 2006).

My Betting Pick

Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

Give the NCAA Football betting points and go over the total.