Look, we aren’t saying that Week 12 in college football is lame … but ABC’s national prime-time matchup is from the AAC as Cincinnati visits unbeaten and No. 11 Central Florida, which has the nation’s longest winning streak but isn’t hugely favored here on the NCAAF odds.
Cincinnati vs UCF NCAA Football Week 12 Spread & Pick
- When: Saturday, 8 PM ET
- Where: Spectrum Stadium, Orlando
- TV: ABC
- Live Stream: WatchESPN
- Radio: TuneIn
- NCAA Football Week 12 Spread: UCF -7.5 (Total 58.5)
- Clear: 17°C/62°F
- Humidity: 75%
- Precipitation: 4%
- Cloud Cover: 2%
- Wind: 7 mph NNE
- Stadium Type: Open
Last MeetingCentral Florida won at Cincinnati 51-23 in 2017. McKenzie Milton threw five touchdown passes — four in the first half. Tre’Quan Smith caught three touchdown passes and ran for another score. Smith is now with the New Orleans Saints, but Milton is back and as good as ever. The Knights had the ball eight times and scored seven touchdowns and a field goal. They were ready to keep going until lightning and heavy rain moved in with 4 seconds left in the third quarter. The game was called after a one-hour delay with more storms on the way. Cincinnati’s Hayden Moore ran for a pair of touchdowns and threw for another. He led Bearcats with a career-high 75 yards rushing.
UCF leads UC 2-1 all-time and is 1-0 in Orlando.
Why Bet on Cincinnati?The Bearcats are no slouch at 9-1 and still have a shot to win the AAC East. They are off a 35-23 win over South Florida. Michael Warren II ran for three touchdowns and caught a pass for another score. Warren had a 13-yard touchdown catch in the first half. He ran for three touchdowns in the third quarter, including a 57-yarder, and set a school record with his 18th TD of the season.
USF entered the game averaging 219.0 rushing yards per game but were limited to just 81 on the ground by the Bearcats. That total marked the sixth time in 2018 that UC has held a foe to under 100 yards rushing in a game. With 313 yards of total offense allowed, it marked the seventh time in 2018 UC has held an opponent to 350 yards or less.
The Bearcats are 9-1 on the year marking the 13th time in program history they have recorded at least nine victories in a season. The last time UC recorded nine or more wins was 2014 when it finished 9-4 overall to cap a four-year stretch in with nine or more victories in a season. QB Desmond Ridder has completed 63.9 percent of his passes in eight starts, throwing for 1,897 yards, 15 TDs and adding another 497 yards rushing along with five more scores.
UC leads the NCAA FBS in net punting and ranks among the Top-20 teams in 3rd-down conversion pct. defense (2), first downs defense (5), total defense (6), 4th-down conversion pct. defense (6), scoring defense (7), team passing efficiency defense (9), rushing defense (11), time of possession (11), passing yards allowed (15), rushing offense (17) and 3rd-down conversion percentage (17).
UC leads the American in rushing defense, scoring defense, total defense, pass defense efficiency, punting, fewest opponent first downs, opponent 3rd-down conversions while ranking No. 2 in pass defense, opponent 4th-down conversions and time of possession.
Why Bet on UCF?UCF won its national-best 22nd straight game last week, 35-24 over Navy. McKenzie Milton threw for two touchdowns and ran for a third. Milton completed 17 of 21 passes for 200 yards without an interception for the Knights, who’ve scored at least 30 points in every game throughout its long winning streak. Dredrick Snelson scored on receptions of 34 and 12 yards, Greg McCrae ran for 101 yards and one TD, and the Knights finished with 297 yards rushing to stay atop the AAC East Division standings.
The Knights have scored 30 or more points in 22 consecutive games, which is tied for the 3rd-longest streak in the AP Poll Era (since 1936). The two longer streaks belong to S. Florida (24 straight, 2015-17) and Oregon (23 straight, 2011-12).
After leading the nation in scoring last season (48.2ppg), UCF is currently eighth in the nation in scoring offense (44.2ppg) and third in the nation in total offense (543.0ypg). The UCF defense has gotten it done with turnovers again in 2018. UCF has tallied 80 explosive plays (8.9 per game) for the season. Explosive plays are defined as 20 yards or more.
Last season, the Knights finished second in the nation with a +1.31 turnover margin and with 21 turnovers gained through eight games this season, UCF currently ranks second in all of FBS with a margin of +1.56. In fact, the UCF defense has forced at least one turnover in all nine games of the 2018 season and in each of the last 28 games, dating back to the 2016 campaign.
ESPN’s GameDay will be on UCF’s campus for the first time. UCF will be playing to clinch the American Athletic Conference East Division Championship and a berth in the American Athletic Conference Championship game for the second consecutive year.
Cincinnati vs UCF NCAA Football Week 12 Betting Trends
- Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November
- Bearcats are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
- Knights are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall
- Knights are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games
- Cincinnati is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games
- Central Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Central Florida’s last 6 games