The Cincinnati Bearcats will be looking to bounce back from their first loss of the season when they take on a desperate SMU Mustangs team that will be looking to record consecutive victories when this one goes down live from Gerald J. Ford Stadium on Saturday. Now, let’s find out which one of these teams is offering the best NCAAF lines value in our online sportsbook.
Cincinnati vs SMU NCAA Football Week 9 Lines & Analysis
“You go to work, you can mentally get tougher, and you have to do the little things right.”👇 Entire Tuesday afternoon presser👇https://t.co/1avcuJhN7z pic.twitter.com/cjtDhMfTQw — Cincinnati Football (@GoBearcatsFB) October 23, 2018
- When: Saturday, October 27, 2018 at 3:30 PM ET
- Where: Gerald J. Ford Stadium
- TV: CBSSN
- Radio: Cincinnati / SMU
- Live Stream: CBSsports.com
- NCAA Football Week 9 Odds: Cincinnati -9.5 / Total: 50.5
- Clear: 24°C/75°F
- Humidity: 47%
- Precipitation: 0%
- Wind: 10 mph NW
- Cloud Cover: 0%
- Type of Stadium: Open
Why Bet On Cincinnati?
Why should you bet on the Bearcats as a nearly double-digit road favorite? There are a few reasons why you should consider backing Cincinnati. First, the Bearcats are the superior offensive team in putting up 35.2 points per game to SMU’s more modest 28.0 points per contest. Next, Cincinnati is also the far, far better defensive team in limiting the opposition to just 15.1 points per game to rank in the country while SMU gives up a whopping 37.2 points per contest.
Combine that with the fact that Cincinnati will be highly motivated to bounce back from their 24-14 Week 8 loss against Temple and it’s easy to see Cincy covering the chalk in this one. This season quarterback Desmond Ridder is completing 60.8 percent of his passes for 1,173 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions while running back Michael Warren II has rushed for a team-high 796 yards and 12 touchdowns.
- Average Score For: 35.29
- Total Yards: 445.43
- Pass Yards: 197.86
- Rush Yards: 247.57
- Average Score Against: 15.14
- Total Yards: 278.14
- Pass Yards: 166.14
- Rush Yards: 112
Why Bet On SMU?
Why should you bet on SMU? Because the Mustangs are playing some decent football right now after their dismal 0-3 start. Not only is SMU coming off a solid 27-23 win over Tulane last weekend, but the Mustangs have won three of their last four games overall while averaging just over 40 points per game in their wins. Another good reasons to back the Mustangs is that they’ve won eight of their last 10 home games.
Last but not least, the Mustangs have a very good quarterback in freshman William Brown who has completed 62.4 percent of his passes for 625 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception, although it was Ben Hicks that started against Tulane and tossed three TD passes in the win.
- Average Score For: 28
- Total Yards: 348.72
- Pass Yards: 239.29
- Rush Yards: 109.43
- Average Score Against: 37.29
- Total Yards: 413.28
- Pass Yards: 221.14
- Rush Yards: 192.14
Cincinnati vs SMU NCAA Football Week 9 Betting Trends
- Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games
- Cincinnati is 7-1 SU in the last 8 games
- The total went UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati’s last 7 games on the road
- SMU is 4-11 ATS in the last 15 games
- SMU is 4-8 SU in the last 12 games
Expert Prediction for Cincinnati vs SMU
Okay college football betting buffs, there’s not a whole lot of sense in beating around the bush with my pick on this Week 9 matchup just because Cincinnati is clearly superior to SMU on both sides of the ball and particularly on defense. Cincinnati has scored at least 34 points in each of their last four victories while SMU has allowed 42 points or more in all four of their losses this season.
The Bearcats have gone 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against a team with a losing record and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. SMU, on the other hand, has gone 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
While I am concerned about Cincinnati’s super weak schedule up until they met Temple last week, the fact of the matter is that the Mustangs have not played defense very well this season, even in winning three of their last four games. Cincinnati’s offense will take advantage of SMU’s porous defense while the Bearcats defense mostly shuts down the Mustangs offense to get the double-digit win and accompanying ATS cover.
NCAA Football Week 9 Pick: Cincinnati 35 SMU 24