Colorado at Oregon Betting Spread & Prediction

Posted by Jordan Walterss on September 21, 2016 in

The Oregon Ducks fell out of the Top 25 this week following a close loss at Nebraska in Week 3. The Ducks look to bounce back in their Pac-12 opener on Saturday evening against Colorado. The Ducks are solid home favorites on college football lines with no total yet due to a key Colorado injury.

Take a Closer Look at the Colorado at Oregon Betting Spread, Prediction & TV Info

When: Saturday, Sept. 24, 5:30 PM ET
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR.
TV: Pac-12 Network
Stream: Pac-12 website
RadioColorado / Oregon
Opening NCAA Football Lines: Oregon -10 (total TBA)

Why Bet on Oregon?

The Ducks were No. 22 but lost 35-32 at Nebraska. Huskers QB Tommy Armstrong scrambled 34 yards for the game-winning touchdown with 2:29 to play, two plays after throwing a 14-yard completion on fourth-and- nine to extend the drive. Oregon had a chance to respond and drove past midfield, but the Ducks’ 13th and final penalty of the game put them in a hole and they couldn’t get out of it.

The Ducks ran 26 times for 166 yards in the first half, thriving despite the absence of running back Royce Freeman and left tackle Tyrell Crosby for all but the opening minutes of the game. Charles Nelson caught eight passes for 80 yards, part of a 14-of- 23 performance by QB Dakota Prukop for 146 yards. However, Prukop didn’t throw a touchdown pass, snapping an NCAA-leading 82-game streak in which Ducks QBs have recorded a TD throw. Johnny Ragin III returned from a one-game absence and led the defense with 10 tackles.

Freeman, who left against Nebraska in the first quarter with an undisclosed leg injury, appears to be on track to return sometime soon but perhaps not Saturday. Freeman has 325 yards on 37 carries this season, averaging a stout 8.8 yards per carry. Before coming out of the game Saturday, Freeman had rushed for 31 yards on five carries and was efficiently moving the Ducks up the field.

Left tackle Crosby and wide receiver Devon Allen will each miss the season after suffering injuries against Nebraska. Allen, a junior and one of the team’s most-recognized players due to his fifth-place finish in the 110-meter hurdles at August’s Rio Olympics, suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee.

Why Bet on Colorado?

The Buffs (2-1) lost 42-28 at No. 4 Michigan last week. Colorado twice held a 14-point lead in the first quarter, but special teams miscues and injuries took their toll. The Wolverines turned one blocked punt into a touchdown and forced another bad punt that put Michigan in position for a second touchdown in the first half, and took a 24-21 lead into the locker room. Colorado regained the lead on the first possession of the third quarter when Sefo Liufau tossed a 70-yard touchdown pass to Shay Fields, but Liufau (16-for- 25, 245 yards, 3 touchdowns) left the game with an ankle injury after CU’s next possession and the Buffs did not score again.

Liufau is questionable for this game. If he can’t go, it will be redshirt freshman Steven Montez, who didn’t look ready against Michigan. Montez’s numbers against the Wolverines were indicative of his struggles. He threw seven passes without a completion and was sacked twice. He did rush four times for 10 yards, but thanks to the two sacks, he finished with a net rushing total of minus-four yards. Two weeks ago, Montez had a much better showing, albeit against a lesser opponent. In mop-up duty against Idaho State, he completed six of 10 passes for 117 yards and two touchdowns.

Colorado lost 41-24 to Oregon last year and hasn’t come close to a win since joining the Pac-12. The Ducks hadn’t allowed CU more than 16 points until last season, and had overwhelmed and outpointed the Buffs by a combined score of 216-42. For only the second time (last season was the first) since CU has played Oregon as Pac-12 members, the Ducks are unranked. Stopping Oregon’s run game has been a problem. In their three most recent meetings with the Buffs, the Ducks have averaged 325 rushing yards.

My Betting Pick

Buffaloes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Buffaloes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Buffaloes are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Ducks are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 conference games.
Ducks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Take Oregon on NCAA lines regardless of Colorado’s QB.