The USC Trojans will almost assuredly beat the Colorado Buffaloes senseless in their Week 11 Pac-12 pairing on Saturday, making the only ‘real’ question surrounding this contest whether or not the Trojans will cover the college football spread as huge two-touchdown-plus road favorites. Now, let’s find out if USC can bring home the bacon as big road favorites or whether the Buffaloes call pull off the ATS or heaven forbid, the outright home win.
When: Friday, November 13, 9:00 PM ET
Where: Folsom Field, Boulder, Colorado
TV: ESPN 2
NCAAF Odds: USC -16
The Colorado Buffaloes got smacked around like a bunch of middle schoolers in their humbling 42-10 loss against Stanford on Saturday while never coming close to covering the spread as a 14.5-point home underdog. Quarterback Sefo Liufau completed 10 of 18 passes for 125 yards but failed to throw a touchdown pass while tossing one interception. Defensively, the Buffs allowed Stanford signal-caller Kevin Hogan to throw for 169 yards and two scores while gifted running back Christian McCaffery rushed for 147 yards while catching three passes for an additional 15 yards while being limited to just 83 rushing yards as a team.
The USC Trojans have won three straight games and are coming off of a solid 38-30 win against Arizona on Saturday though they failed to cover the spread as a 19-point home favorite to snap their two-game ATS winning streak. Quarterback Cody Kessler completed 22 of 36 passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns while running back Ronald Jones II went off for 177 yards and one score on just 19 carries. Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster added eight catches for 138 yards an one score in the win.
The USC Trojans average just about 10 points per game more than Colorado while simultaneously allowing almost six points per game fewer than their Pac-12 rivals, hence the 16-point spread in this matchup. No matter, the Trojans have beaten the Buffaloes five straight times dating back to 2000, including two of the last three times as a whopping double-digit favorite of at least 19.5 points. USC has scored 38 points or more in two of their last three games while Colorado has been held to 17 points or less twice in their last three.
The bottom line for this Week 11 Pac-12 pairing is that Colorado simply doesn’t have enough talent on its roster to keep up with the speedy Trojans and their slew of four and five-star recruits. The Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a losing record and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. Conversely, the Buffaloes are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games and 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
With the Trojans going 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings against Colorado, I think it’s a foregone conclusion that USC rolls to victory in this one.
My Pick: USC 45 Colorado 24
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