Duke at Louisville Expert Pick & Odds

Posted by Jordan Walters on Tuesday,October 11, 2016 9:03, EDT in

A Duke-Louisville matchup in college basketball would be spectacular. As for Friday’s football game between the ACC rivals? Probably not going to be close as the No. 7 Cardinals are huge favorites on college football odds and are well-rested off their bye as quarterback Lamar Jackson resumes his Heisman candidacy.

How to Bet on the Duke at Louisville Expert Pick, Odds & TV Info

When: Friday, Oct. 14, 7 PM ET
Where: Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium, Louisville
TV: ESPN
Stream: WatchESPN
Radio: Duke / Louisville
Opening NCAA Football Lines: Louisville -35 (71)

Why Bet on Louisville?

Louisville is one of the best teams in the nation, but after a tough road loss to Clemson two weeks ago, they are on the outside of the College Football Playoff field. That path to the playoff became a lot tougher to navigate this past Saturday. The Cardinals didn’t play a game in Week 6 — they had a bye — but Navy and Houston did, and Louisville was a big loser in that contest. That’s because Louisville needed Houston to be ranked as high as possible and be unbeaten then the Cards visit them on Nov. 17.

Now, Louisville’s best hope to make the playoff is for Clemson to falter and cede the ACC Atlantic. At No. 7, the Cards are the highest-ranked one-loss team.

The Cards lost a thriller at Clemson 42-36 on Oct. 1. The Tigers seemingly had the game won before halftime, scoring four TDs in the second quarter to lead 28-10 at the break. Then “Action” Jackson got moving and the Cardinals (4-1, 2-1) scored on five consecutive possessions to take a 36-28 lead with 7:50 left before the Tigers rallied.

Louisville’s 568 yards in total offense gave the Cardinals their sixth consecutive game with over 500 yards of total offense. Jackson totaled 457 yards of total offense to give him 5,123 for his career, which moves him into eighth place for total offense in a career after only 17 games. Jackson rushed a career-high 31 times, which bested his previous mark of 22 set against Texas A&M in the Music City Bowl last season. He finished with 162 yards — the fourth 100-yard game this season and the ninth of his career, which ties him for sixth-most in school history. Jackson accounted for two more touchdowns to give him 27 for the year. It’s the eighth game in a row the sophomore has both rushed and passed for at least one touchdown in a game.

The Cardinals, who haven’t been home since a 63-20 win over Florida State on Sept. 17, are looking for their seventh straight win at home. Entering Friday night’s Blackout Game, the Cardinals lead the nation in scoring (58.0 ppg.) and total offense (659.2 ypg), and have scored 35 or more points in all five games this season. In the first two home games of the season, the Cardinals are averaging 66.5 points. Louisville is averaging 596.5 yards of total offense in the pair of wins — running for an average of 293.0 and passing for 303.5. This will be the second meeting between the two schools — the first since 2002 — a 40-3 win for the Cardinals in Durham, N.C.

Why Bet on Duke?

The Blue Devils (3-3) are off a 13-6 win over Army. Daniel Jones and Parker Boehme each threw a touchdown pass in the win. Duke jumped out to a 13-0 lead early in the second quarter, and their defense stifled Army’s rushing attack to hold on for the victory in pouring rain. Duke caused three turnovers, including a forced fumble by Corbin McCarthy to set up his team’s first touchdown. Both teams struggled on offense as Hurricane Matthew made its way through North Carolina.

The teams combined for 93 passing yards, averaged 3.4 yards per play and had as many punts (17) as first downs. Overall, the teams combined for 393 yards of offense overall and went a combined 9-of- 32 for the game on third down. Duke managed nine first downs to Army’s eight and forced three turnovers in the game.

Jones was solid under center for Duke, going 7-of- 15 passing and rushing for 55 yards. Jones’ one touchdown pass was 22 yards and all seven of Jones’ touchdown passes this season have covered 20 or more yards. The Duke single-season mark for touchdown passes of 20-plus yards is 11, by Ben Bennett (1982) and Sean Renfree (2012). Jones’ 15 pass attempts lifted his season total to 212, the third most by a Duke freshman quarterback in a year. Thaddeus Lewis owns the mark with 340 in 2006. Shaun Wilson and Jela Duncan added 50 and 40 yards, respectively, on the ground.

Ben Humphreys and Joe Giles-Harris again led the defensive effort with 10 and 7 respective tackles. Duke senior safety Deondre Singleton was named the ACC Defensive Back of the Week. Singleton received this week’s honor after recording five tackles, one for lost yardage, one interception, one fumble recovery and one pass breakup.

The Blue Devils snapped a two-game home losing streak. Duke has not lost three consecutive home games since an eight-game skid from November 13, 2010 – September 1, 2012.

My Expert Pick

Blue Devils are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Blue Devils are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Cardinals are 5-1- 1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Take Duke and go over the total.