NCAAF Expert Analysis - Top Games from 2020 Week 3

NCAAF Expert Analysis – Top Games from 2020 Week 3

Written by on September 18, 2020

With the 2020 NCAA college football season heading into its third week of action this coming weekend, it’s time to find out which Week 3 matchups are offering the best betting value against their College Football odds.

NCAA Football Analysis – Top Week 3 Games to Bet On

Whether you like making straight-up (SU), moneyline wagers, against-the-spread (ATS) picks over Over/Under (O/U) total wagers, you’re going to get the expert college football betting advice you’ll need in order to make the most out of your Week 3 wagering opportunities.

Houston at No. 24 Baylor

Houston went 4-8 in their first year under head coach Dana Holgorsen last season while dropping four of their final five games. More importantly, the Cougars lost dual-threat starting quarterback D’Eriq King and will now be led by  junior signal-caller Clayton Tune, who passed for 1,533 yards with 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions in seven games last season. Senior linebacker Grant Stuard returns after leading Houston with 97 tackles and 9.5 tackles for loss last season, but there are changes on both sides of the ball for the Cougars in Year 2 of the Holgorsen era.

Baylor came up one win short of reaching the College Football Playoff last season and saw former head coach Matt Rhile leave for the NFL. The Bears hired former LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda to lead the program to what they believe could be even greater heights this season and the Bears have some continuity under center as starting quarterback in Charlie Brewer returns for his senior season after throwing for 3,161 yards with 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions last season. Brewer could become the first player in program history to lead Baylor in passing yards in four straight years. Baylor also returns junior linebacker Terrel Bernard, a Butkus Award contender that recorded a stellar 112 tackles, 4.5 sacks, three fumble recoveries and one interception in 2019.

  • TV: FOX
  • When: Saturday, September 19 at 12:00 PM ET
  • Spread: Baylor -7.5

Prediction

Houston has gone a modest 5-5 ATS over their last 10 games, but an impressive 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog.On the flip side of the coin, Baylor has gone 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games and 5-1 ATS over their last six.

With the Bears looking to get off to a positive star under Dave Aranda and playing at home, I say, keep it simple and go with the approximately 61 percent of public bettors that like Baylor to win and cover the chalk as a manageable 4.5-point favorite in this regular season opener for both teams.

Pick: Baylor 31 Houston 24

Syracuse at No. 25 Pittsburgh at 12:00 PM ET

Syracuse got smacked around in their 31-6 road loss at North Carolina in Week 2 while getting limited to one field goal in the game’s middle two quarters and allowing the Tar Heels to put three touchdowns on the board in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Tommy DeVito was limited to 13 of 31 passing for 112 yards with no touchdowns in the loss.

No. 25 Pittsburgh jumped all over Austin Peay last weekend by scoring six first half touchdowns while en route to a 55-0 shutout win. Quarterback Kenny Pickett tossed one TD pass and added a touchdown run while the Panthers limited their opponents to a mind-boggling one rushing yard in the win.

  • TV: ACCN
  • When: Saturday, September 19 at 12:00 PM ET
  • Spread: Pittsburgh -21

Prediction

Pittsburgh has won two straight in this series with each victory coming by an identical seven points. I know the Panthers looked great last weekend, but consider the level of competition they were facing against an Austin Peay squad that shouldn’t be on the same field. While Syracuse has gone 1-4 ATS in their last five road dates against Pittsburgh, the underdog in this ACC rivalry has gone 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. In the end, I think the spread is a bit too high for the Panthers to cover.

Pick: Pittsburgh 31 Syracuse 20

No. 14 UCF at Georgia Tech

Central Florida is coming off a fine, 10-3 campaign in 2019 that saw the Knights win six of their final seven games under true freshman quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who set a new program record for passing yards by a freshman with 3,653.

Georgia Tech picked up a hard-fought 16-13 road win over Florida State on Saturday despite being whopping 13-point road dogs. Quarterback Jeff Sims passed for 277 yards and one touchdown while adding 64 rushing yards in the win to become the first freshman quarterback to win a season opener for Georgia Tech since 2003.

Prediction

Central Florida has gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and a bankroll-boosting 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in September. Still, while Georgia Tech has gone an uninspiring 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games and 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games, I like the Yellow Jackets to cover the chalk as a touchdown home dog in this one, based mostly on what I saw from them against Florida State last weekend.

Pick: Central Florida 31 Georgia Tech 27

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