With College football season upon us, the win totals for every team have now officially been released. What you very often find is that the better teams are overvalued, while the lesser know schools coming off poor seasons are undervalued. There are, of course, exceptions to both rules, but in that group, we can usually find some good bets and some to stay away from. Let’s take a look at 5 on both sides of the equation so you can plan your bets against their NCAAF odds.
5 Win Totals to Wager On and 5 You Need to Avoid
5 To Bet On
Oregon Ducks (OVER 9) – The PAC 12 was a total nightmare in 2020, with games cancelled left right and center. The Ducks managed to play 7 games, going 4-3, while losing their Bowl Game, but they have a ton of talent at their disposal heading into this season. I think they are looking at a double-digit win season in 2021.
Missouri Tigers (OVER 7) – Yes, the Tigers are in the SEC East with Georgia and Florida, but this is not about winning a division. Missouri surprised a lot of people last season with a 5-5 record, and they look ready to take another step forward this season. This may end up being a push, but I think it’s worth taking a shot.
Louisville Cardinals (OVER 6 ½) – The Cardinals offense hurt them last season by giving up a ridiculous number of turnovers. That took away from how good this team was on the defensive side of the football. If they can rid themselves of the turnover bug and the D steps up again, there is no reason why they can’t win 7 or 8 games.
Troy Trojans (OVER 6 ½) – This is a team that finished 5-6 last season, but the record does not tell the whole story. They had 2 losses by a TD or less and 2 by a FG or less. Those are games that could have gone either way. A little more luck this season and they easily go OVER.
Florida International Panthers (OVER 4 ½) – This is a team that was hit hard by COVID last season, seeing games routinely postponed throughout the year. They looked worse than they really are and have a 2021 schedule that should help them have a bounce back season.
5 To Avoid
Alabama Crimson Tide (11 ½ wins) – Yes, the Alabama Crimson Tide have been outstanding for over a decade and they will probably be very good again in 2021. That said, expecting them to go unbeaten through the SEC is a big ask. This looks like an UNDER scenario.
Ohio State Buckeyes (11 wins) – The Buckeyes have some big pieces to replace this season, which they will probably do. The issue here is that they have a handful of games against teams who will likely land in the top 25. You would expect at least 1 loss from that group of games.
North Carolina Tar Heels (10 wins) – This total seems particularly high when you consider that the Tar Heels have a ton of holes to fill on offense, with 4 of their best producers from last season now playing in the NFL. 10 wins looks like a bridge too far.
USC Trojans (8 ½ wins) – The USC Trojans benefitted from amassing a lot of points on turnovers last season, but the chances of that happening in back-to-back seasons for any team is always slim. I think this year is a backward step.
Iowa Hawkeyes (8 ½ wins) – There is no real explanation needed here, as all you need to do is look at Iowa’s schedule for the coming season. If you can convince yourself that they can pull out 9 wins, then go for it, but 8 even feels like a stretch for me.
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