Florida at Vanderbilt Expert Pick & Betting Spread

Posted by Jordan Walterss on September 29, 2016 in

The University of Florida is the defending SEC East Division champion, but the No. 23 Gators can essentially kiss any chance of repeating goodbye if they were to be upset at Vanderbilt on Saturday and suffer their second straight conference loss. But this being Vandy, UF is a solid favorite on college football odds.

Here’s a Look at the Florida at Vanderbilt Expert Pick, Betting Spread & TV Info

When: Saturday, Oct. 1, noon ET
Where: Vanderbilt Stadium, Nashville
TV: SEC Network
Stream: WatchESPN
RadioFlorida / Vanderbilt
Opening NCAA Football Lines: UF -10 (41)

Why Bet on Florida?

The No. 23 Gators (3-1, 1-1 SEC) lost to Tennessee last week 38-28 in Knoxville, blowing a 21-0 lead. It was the biggest blown lead by a Florida team since losing a 23-point edge at home in a 38-33 defeat against Miami in 2003.

Florida led 21-3 at halftime, with backup quarterback Austin Appleby playing very well the first two periods. That score and the UF momentum stood after Tennessee drove deep into UF territory on the third quarter’s opening possession only to have Josh Dobbs throw an interception to Gators cornerback Teez Tabor. But after that? UF’s next six offensive possessions: 16 plays, minus-9 yards, one first down, one turnover. UT’s next six: 26 plays, 287 yards, five touchdowns. Appleby played because of an injury to Luke Del Rio, who isn’t expected to play here. Appleby completed 23 of 39 passes for 296 yards, three touchdowns and an interception vs. the Vols. He passed for 213 yards in the first half but managed just 83 in the second as Tennessee's defense made adjustments and Florida failed to respond.

Meanwhile, UF defensive tackle Joey Ivie (thumb) is out, offensive lineman Tyler Jordan (eye) has not been cleared to return, cornerback Quincy Wilson is slowed by a leg injury and defensive end Jordan Sherit, also battling a leg injury, is expected to play Saturday.

Why Bet on Vanderbilt?

The Commodores were out of conference last week and rallied to beat Western Kentucky. Vanderbilt’s defense turned away a 2-point conversion play at the end of the first overtime as the Commodores escaped with a 31-30 victory. Kyle Shurmur’s 5-yard pass to Nathan Marcus on the first possession of overtime gave Vanderbilt (2-2) its first lead of the game, and Tommy Openshaw added the point after for the Commodores.

Vandy went 75 yards in the final 1:02 of regulation in seven plays to tie the game at 24-24 and force overtime. A pass interference call in the end zone on Western Kentucky’s De’Andre Simmons against Vanderbilt’s Trent Sherfield gave the Commodores the ball at the Hilltopper 2 with three seconds to play in regulation. Ralph Webb scored the tying TD.

Vanderbilt’s win snapped an 11-game home winning for Western Kentucky, the fifth-longest active streak in the nation coming into Saturday’s game. The victory marked Derek Mason’s second road win during his tenure at Vanderbilt. It was Vanderbilt’s first overtime game since 2011, a 27-21 loss to Tennessee, and the Commodores’ first overtime win since 1999 over Ole Miss.

Last year, Vandy lost just 9-7 at Florida. Austin Hardin’s 43-yard field goal with 2:22 remaining was the winner. The Commodores haven’t beaten Florida in Nashville since 1988. Vandy has won just one of the past 10 meetings overall.

My Expert Pick

Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Vanderbilt.
Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Vanderbilt.
Road team is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Take Florida and go under the total in NCAA football betting.