The Florida Gators will almost assuredly extend their winning ways when they host the reeling Vanderbilt Commodores in their Week 10 SEC showdown, making the only question surrounding for this mismatch whether or not the Gators can cover the College Football spread as huge, three-touchdown home favorites. Let’s find out!
NCAAF Spread and Game Preview: Vanderbilt a No. 12 Florida
When: Saturday, November 7, 12:00 PM ET
Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Florida
NCAAF Odds: Florida -21
— Florida Gators (@FloridaGators) November 5, 2015
Betting on the Florida Gators (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS)
The Gators pounded the snot out of beat-up Georgia in its 27-3 Week 9 SEC conference win while easily covering the college football betting line as a 1.5-point road favorite. Athletically-gifted quarterback Treon Harris completed just 8 of 19 passes for 155 yards and one score, but it was running back Kelvin Taylor that led the way by rushing for 121 yards and two scores on 25 carries. “It was pretty much my offensive line,” Taylor said. “We practiced well all week running the ball, and it paid off for us in this game.
Defensively, the Gators took advantage of first-time Bulldogs starter Faton Bauta after the young signal-caller was selected to start this game in place of struggling former starter Greyson Lambert. The Gators picked off Bauta four times and held the Bulldogs without a touchdown for their second straight game. The Gators are ranked 57th in scoring (31.0 ppg) and a stellar seventh in points allowed (15.5 ppg).
Betting on the Vanderbilt Commodores (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS)
The Commodores got smacked around like little kids in their 34-0 shutout loss against unbeaten Houston in Week 9 while never coming close to covering the spread as a 11-point road dog. The Commodores were outgained by the Cougars 371-185, including 221-44 through the air. “I apologize for the bad ball tonight,” Vanderbilt coach Derek Mason said. The Commodores got some really inept play from starting quarterback Johnny McCrary. As the redshirt sophomore was limited to 2-for-9 passing for just with 24 yards and two interceptions while freshman backup Kyle Shurmur was no better in completing 3-of-11 passes for 20 yards and another interception.
Vanderbilt has now lost eight consecutive games against ranked opponents dating back to 2013. The Commodores are ranked 125th in scoring (15.8 ppg) but a stellar 24th in points allowed (18.5 ppg).
My Expert Game Analysis, Prediction & Pick
Florida isn’t the most explosive offensive team there is, but after seeing Vanderbilt’s pitiful effort against Houston last weekend, I don’t think there’s much choice but to back the Gators to cover the spread as three-touchdown favorites and apparently, 72 percent of the betting public agrees. I know the Commodores are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an SU loss, but the Gators are 6-1 ATS in their L/7 games versus a team with a losing record and an identical 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games and last six home games. Vanderbilt is 4-1 ATS in their last five road dates against Florida, but they’re not getting the ATS cover this time around!
Last but not least, with the Over going 5-0 in the last five meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings in Florida, I like the Total to go over the low, 37.5-point total.
My Betting Prediction: Florida 35 Vanderbilt 7