Iowa vs. Purdue NCAA Football Betting Analysis

Posted by Daniel Strum on Saturday,November 21, 2015 5:51, EST in

The unbeaten Iowa Hawkeyes are a virtual lock to keep their perfect record intact and continue their march in the college football playoff ranks when they host the lowly Purdue Boilermakers in a Week 12 Big Ten mismatch that gets underway live from Kinnick Stadium on Saturday. The only real question surrounding this conference clash is whether or not the Hawkeyes will cover the college football odds spread as whopping three-touchdown favorites. Now, let’s find out.

Purdue @ No. 5 Iowa NCAAF Betting Game Information and Odds

When: Saturday, November 21, 12:00 PM ET
Where: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Iowa
NCAAF Odds: Iowa Hawkeyes -21
Over/Under: 57.5
TV: ESPN2
TV Stream: WatchESPN

Why Bet on the Purdue Boilermakers (2-8 SU, 5-5 ATS)

Purdue has lost two straight games including their 21-14 road loss against Northwestern on Saturday, but the Boilermakers did manage to cover the spread as a 14-point road dog to improve to 3-1 ATS over their last four games. Quarterback David Blough completed 26 of 25 passes for 287 yards with one touchdown and one interception while wide receiver Dominique Young caught five passes for 107 yards and one score. Unfortunately, Purdue was limited to just 73 rushing yards in the loss. The good news however is that the Boilermakers put up a good effort one week after getting blown out 48-14 by Illinois while Blough has tossed six touchdown passes in his last three games and led the Boilermakers to a stunning 55-45 win over Nebraska in Week 10.

“I thought we played tough,” said Boilermakers defensive tackle Jake Replogle. “I was proud of our effort, and we were having fun most of the game. We were making plays, and that’s what we need to be doing every week.”

Purdue is ranked 97th in scoring (24.5 ppg) and 107th in points allowed (34.4 ppg).

Why Bet on the Iowa Hawkeyes (10-0 SU, 6-4 ATS)

The Hawkeyes had their hands full against feisty Minnesota on Saturday, but they managed to escape with a narrow 40-35 win over the Gophers in a pretty wild affair to become the first Hawkeyes team to ever go 10-0. “It’s a very good accomplishment under our belt right now,” Iowa junior cornerback Desmond King said. “It’s an honor to be the first team to go 10-0 here.” Quarterback C.J. Beathard completed 18 of 26 passes for 213 yards, but it was junior running back LeShun Daniels that led the way to victory by rushing for 195 yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries.

Iowa is ranked 38th in scoring (33.6 ppg) and a stellar 16th in points allowed (18.4 ppg). The Hawkeyes can solidify their spot in the Big Ten title tilt with either a win in this contest against Purdue or if No. 18 Northwestern beats at No. 25 Wisconsin on the road.

My Expert Game Analysis, Prediction & Pick:

While I have no doubt that the Iowa Hawkeyes are going to get the win here to remain undefeated, I believe the 51 percent of public bettors that like Purdue to cover the spread as 21-point road dogs are right on the mark! The Hawkeyes may be 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss, but they’re also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Purdue, on the other hand, has gone 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a winning home record and a surprising 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 road games overall. Not only have the Boilermakers gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an SU loss, but the road team in this Big Ten rivalry has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

More importantly, I like the effort the Boilermakers have shown in beating Nebraska and hanging tough with Northwestern recently and I believe they’re going to find a way to keep the final score far closer than a 21-point margin.

My Pick: Iowa 31 Purdue 20