Iowa vs Wisconsin 2019 College Football Week 11 Odds, Preview & Pick.

Iowa vs Wisconsin 2019 College Football Week 11 Odds, Preview & Pick

Written by on November 7, 2019

Both No. 18 Iowa and No. 16 Wisconsin are two games behind unbeaten Minnesota in the Big Ten West Division. Thus, the loser of Saturday’s matchup between the Hawkeyes and Badgers is all but eliminated from the division race. UW is a solid Mybookie NCAA football betting favorite.

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Last Iowa vs Wisconsin Meeting

Last year, the Badgers won 28-17 in Iowa City. Alex Hornibrook threw a 17-yard TD pass to A.J. Taylor with 57 seconds left. Jonathan Taylor had 113 yards rushing and Alec Ingold ran for a 33-yard score with 22 seconds left for the Badgers. Wisconsin marched 88 yards in 10 plays on the game-deciding drive, capped when Hornibrook found an open Taylor for his third touchdown of the game. Hornibrook finished 17 of 22 passing for 205 yards and three TDs. Nate Stanley threw for 256 yards on 14 of 23 passing for Iowa, but he was picked off on a deflected ball with 38 seconds left.

The Badgers have won 6 of their last 7 meetings with the Hawkeyes, dating to 2010, including 3 straight.

Why Bet on Iowa?

Iowa is bowl eligible for the 18th time in the last 19 seasons. Kirk Ferentz has 94 Big Ten wins, one shy of tying Joe Paterno for No. 5 all-time in conference history.

Beyond the Big Ten West implications of this clash with the Badgers, a New Year’s Six bowl berth is possible if Iowa (6-2, 3-2) reaches double digits in wins. The Hawkeyes were ranked 18th in the initial College Football Playoff poll of the season released Tuesday night.

Iowa was off last week and won 20-0 at Northwestern on Oct. 26 in its last game. The Hawkeye defense was suffocating, limiting the Wildcats to 70 yards in the first half and 202 yards for the game. Iowa forced one turnover — a first-quarter interception — and four turnovers on downs. The shutout was the first for Northwestern since 2015 (at Michigan) and the first home shutout since 1999 (vs. Michigan State). Iowa has four shutouts in its last 11 Big Ten games (Rutgers and Northwestern in 2019, Maryland and Illinois in 2018). No other Big Ten team has more than one shutout since the start of 2018.

What about the Offense?

Offensively, Iowa did what it needed to do, and finished with 302 yards. Senior Nate Stanley completed 12-of-26 attempts for 179 yards and a touchdown. Stanley’s 50-yard touchdown pass to WR Tyrone Tracy in the first quarter was the 62nd touchdown pass of his career, No. 2 all-time in program history (Chuck Long, 74). Stanley entered the game tied with Drew Tate for second with 61.

Iowa’s defense ranks third in the country in scoring defense (10.1 ppg), sixth in total defense (265.9 ypg), and eighth in rushing defense (87.8 ypg). That 10.1 ppg is the lowest total of the Ferentz era (next best is 13.0 in 2008), and the lowest by any Hawkeye team since 1956 (8.4). Iowa’s 265.9 ypg in total defense is the lowest by any Hawkeye team since 1984 (272.2). Iowa is the only team in the country not to allow a rush over 20 yards this season.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Points per Game: 25.00
  • Passing Yards: 256.57
  • Rushing Yards: 149.00
  • Yards per Play: 5.60
Defense
  • Points per Game: 11.57
  • Passing Yards: 183.00
  • Rushing Yards: 92.00
  • Yards per Play: 4.70

Why Bet on Wisconsin?

Wisconsin was also off last week and was 13th in the first College Football Playoff rankings. The surprisingly high ranking means the Badgers have the slightest hope of making the playoff if they win out but it’s quite unlikely.

The Badgers were manhandled by Ohio State in their last game 38-0 on Oct. 26. Heisman Trophy candidate Jonathan Taylor could muster only 52 yards rushing against the Buckeyes after averaging almost 137 per game coming in.

Iowa vs Wisconsin is going to be a good one.

On the season, Taylor has run the ball 199 times for 1,009 yards and 15 touchdowns. He’s averaging 5.7 yards per carry, which is the best clip in the Big Ten for tailbacks that have at least 170 rushes on the year. Iowa has had somewhat success limiting Taylor in the previous two meetings. In his career against Iowa, Taylor has averaged 135 yards on 27 carries, and hasn’t had a rushing touchdown yet.

About the Numbers

Taylor has amassed 5,180 yards in just 35 career games to join Georgia’s Herschel Walker (5,596), Wisconsin’s Ron Dayne (5,091) and Oregon’s LaMichael James (5,082) as the only players to rush for 5,000 yards before the end of their junior season. Taylor is the 4th player in school history to record 3 consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons, joining Billy Marek (1973-75), Ron Dayne (1996-99) and P.J. Hill (2006-08). Taylor needs 1 touchdown to become the 5th player in school history to score 20 TDs in a season.

QB Jack Coan is completing 74.5% of his passes on the season, ranking 3rd nationally, and has thrown 10 TDs against 2 interceptions.

Wisconsin’s defense leads the country in yards allowed (223.5 ypg) and passing efficiency defense (139.4). The Badgers also hold top-five rankings in scoring defense (T-4th, 11.4 ppg), rushing defense (5th, 84.1 ypg), and passing defense (3rd, 139.4 ypg). Wisconsin has outscored its opponents by a combined margin of 177 points in its 5 games at Camp Randall Stadium this season, running up a 206-29 advantage. Including 3 shutouts.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Points per Game: 39.71
  • Passing Yards: 183.00
  • Rushing Yards: 92.00
  • Yards per Play: 4.70

Defense

  • Points per Game: 7.57
  • Passing Yards: 135.43
  • Rushing Yards: 58.43
  • Yards per Play: 3.43

Iowa vs Wisconsin College Football Week 11 Betting Trends

  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Wisconsin
  • Road team is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings
  • Hawkeyes are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games against an opponent in the Big 10 conference
  • Hawkeyes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played in November
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Iowa’s last 5 games this season
  • Badgers are 17-3 SU in their last 20 games played in November
  • Badgers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games played in week 11
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Wisconsin’s last 6 games against an opponent in the Big 10 conference

Expert Final Score Prediction for Iowa vs Wisconsin

Iowa 10 – Wisconsin 16

 

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