Kansas State @ Texas NCAA Football Free Pick

Posted by Daniel Strum on October 24, 2015 in

Having lost to the same opponent–the Oklahoma Sooners–in their previous games, the Texas Longhorns (2-4) and the Kansas State Wildcats (3-3) are set to meet in Austin this weekend, as both programs try to get their respective second half of the 2015 season off to a good start in the College Football betting lines. The Longhorns are coming off a bye week and are looking to build on their thrilling win over the Sooners in the Red River Showdown prior to the bye. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are trending in the opposite direction having lost to Oklahoma last Saturday, their third loss in a row in a three-game losing streak that features three currently ranked teams (Oklahoma, TCU and Oklahoma State).

How To Bet the Wildcats @ Longhorns NCAA Football Odds, TV & Game Info

Venue: Royal Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
Date: Saturday, October 24, 2015
Time: 12:00 PM ET
TV: FOX Sports 1
NCAAF Odds: Kansas State (+4) at Texas (-6.5)

Texas Longhorns vs. Kansas State Game Preview and Betting Analysis

In their last game before bye week, the Longhorns upset the undefeated Sooners 24-17 to secure their second victory of the season. Even though QB Jerrod Heard did not have a spectacular play against Oklahoma, completing just 8 of his 11 passes for 53 passing yards and a TD; D’Onta Foreman was able to uplift the team with his solid running game, rushing nine times for 117 yards. Marcus Johnson added four receptions for 35 yards and a TD in that surprising win.

Notably, Texas completely dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in arguably their best performance this season. Offensively, they ran for 313 yards in the game, while the defense chipped in handily by sacking Oklahoma’ QB Baker Mayfield six times. If the Longhorns continue to be the aggressors this week, they could grab this much-needed win against the leaky Wildcats defense that is allowing 29.8 points and 424.5 yards per game.

Defensively, DT Poona Ford was the difference maker against Oklahoma, finishing the game with 1.5 sacks plus a couple of key tackles. Ford and the Texas defense will need to step up once again, as Kansas State has a vibrant offense, especially in the air where the team is averaging the eighth-best yards per pass in the nation with 14.8.

Though if the Wildcats play as badly as they did last week, then the Longhorns will probably not have much to worry about. Kansas State was utterly dominated by the Sooners in a 55-0 shutout loss last weekend, giving up 35 points in the first half. The loss was one of the most embarrassing losses in the program’s history, especially because most fans had expected K-State to win at home after the Longhorns had set a winning formula two weeks ago.

In that humiliating beatdown, QB Joe Hubener completed 4 of his 14 passes for 39 yards and two INTs. Backup Kody Cook was not any better too, throwing an interception of his own and completing only 1-of-8 passes. Cook, a WR who had 38 receiving yards in the first half, was asked to play quarterback after Hubener withdrew in the first quarter due to injury.

The running game was just as bad, pounding the ground 31 times for a measly total of 65 yards as a team. This offense must improve its performance against the Longhorn defense that can be very disruptive and clinical in punishing mistakes, something that is evidenced by their solid average of 131.3 return yards per game, good for 10th in Division I.

The Wildcats’ defense that has recently been giving up major yardages—450 or more in their last four games, including 568 on Saturday against Oklahoma—will also need to clean up its act. With 32 plays allowed of 20 or more yards so far in the season, this defense is giving up far too much yardages that is adding further injury to the offense. Nonetheless, although the Wildcats’ defense has not been impressive, they should be able to give a decent account of themselves, exploiting gaps in the Longhorns offensive line that ranks 120th in the country with 3.3 sacks allowed per game.

Texas vs Kansas State Key Betting Trends

  • The Longhorns are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games
  • The Wildcats are 17-8 SU in their last 25 games
  • The Longhorns are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games when playing Kansas State
  • The Wildcats are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing Texas
  • The Longhorns are 1-6 SU in their last seven games when playing Kansas State
  • The Wildcats are 6-1 SU in their last seven games when playing Texas
  • The Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against Kansas State
  • The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against Texas
  • The total has gone OVER in four of Kansas State’s last five games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Texas’s last 16 games at home

My Expert Game Prediction and Picks

Texas nearly defeated Oklahoma State and California, two top-20 teams earlier in the season, and is coming off a remarkable win over the Sooners, underlining the fact that there could be more to come from the Longhorns, starting this week at home. On the flipside, Hubener has been a mess this season for the Wildcats and it is hard to imagine him and Kansas State winning this game. Added to the porous K-State defense that is likely to get torched by Texas’ strong running game, the Longhorns should be your NCAAF Picks for both the SU and ATS NCAAF odds, though with an UNDER in the total betting lines.