Louisville at Boston College Expert Pick & Lines

Posted by Michael Hunt on Tuesday,November 1, 2016 8:08, EST in

No. 5 Louisville nearly was shocked last week vs. Virginia but escaped. So the Cardinals aren’t likely to be caught looking past a not-very- good Boston College team on Saturday that suddenly does have a bit of confidence. Behind Heisman Trophy favorite Lamar Jackson, UofL is a huge favorite in college football betting.

How To Bet Louisville on the Boston College Expert Pick, Lines & TV Info

When: Saturday, Nov. 5, Noon ET|
Where: Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, Mass.
TV: ESPN2
Stream: WatchESPN
Radio: Louisville / Boston College
Opening NCAA Football Lines: Louisville -25 (55.5)

Why Bet on Louisville?

The Cards didn’t play well Saturday in a 32-25 win over a pretty bad Virginia team. With his team trailing 25-24 to Virginia, Jackson lofted a throw where only Jaylen Smith could catch it in the end zone. Smith made an athletic catch and came down with the ball with 13 seconds remaining. On the two-point conversion, Jackson found Smith again and the Cards somehow survived.

That touchdown saved Louisville from near certain College Football Playoff elimination. Jackson, forced from the pocket repeatedly, completed 24 of 41 passes for 361 yards, had four touchdown passes and an interception and ran 18 times for 90 yards. Virginia was a 34-point underdog. It had scored with 1:57 remaining and used a 2-point conversion to take a 25-24 lead.

Louisville totaled 508 total yards of offense versus Virginia, the 10th straight game of over 400 yards of offense and the sixth time this season surpassing 500 yards. The Cardinals have amassed over 500 yards in total offense in eight of the last nine games. With 451 yards of total offense, Jackson has 3,520 yards on the season, which ranks as the seventh-most at UofL for a single season. Jackson also moved within two yards of becoming the 18th Louisville player to rush for 1,000 yards in a season. He has 998 this year.

But the Cardinals failed to score on their opening drive for the second-straight contest. Louisville trailed for the first time after the first quarter — trailing Virginia 10-7. Louisville, which has scored 108 first-quarter points this season, has scored seven or fewer points in the first stanza in four the last five games.

While the Cardinals are ranked No. 5 in the AP and coaches polls, don’t be surprised if they’re not ranked as high by the College Football Playoff selection committee in Tuesday’s first rankings. Other than routing then-No. 2 Florida State, Louisville hasn’t beaten an opponent with a winning record.

Why Bet on Boston College?

The Eagles (4-4) upset NC State 21-14 on Saturday to end a 12-game ACC losing streak. Running back Davon Jones threw a 14-yard touchdown pass to Tommy Sweeney on a trick play with 4:43 left, and BC earned its first Atlantic Coast Conference victory since 2014. Coach Steve Addazio said he “told them (at halftime) on both sides of the ball, we’re going after them with everything we’ve got.”

Receiver Jeff Smith rushed 60 yards for a touchdown for BC’s first touchdown and Patrick Towles was 18 of 33 for 204 yards. What’s statistically the worst offense in the ACC outgained N.C. State 386-338 and used trick plays. Sophomore wide receiver Jeff Smith ran for a 60-yard touchdown on a jet sweep in the second quarter. It was the longest BC run of the season. Sophomore running back Jon Hilliman returned from injury and rushed for 74 yards on 20 carries. It was the second win for Boston College under Addazio when trailing entering the fourth quarter.

NC State had 1st and goal from the 2, but Kamrin Moore sealed the victory with an interception in the end zone with less than two minutes remaining to give BC the victory. It was Moore’s first career interception. The Boston College defense has now held opponents to under 100 rushing yards in 20 of the last 33 games, allowing just 31 to NC State. This season, BC has not allowed more than 50 rushing yards in all four victories.

Louisville’s offense has to be better this week facing a defense that ranks seventh in the country in total defense and fourth against the run. The Cardinals, who are averaging 268.0 yards on the ground, are facing a stout unit that yields only 93.6 yards per game.

“They are physical guys, and they run hard and play with great effort,” Louisville coach Bobby Petrino said of Boston College’s defense. “Up front they are big inside and anchor down. They got a really good defensive end that can rush the passer and their linebackers are … we know them pretty well.”

Last year, the Cardinals defeated the Eagles 17-14 at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium – after turning the ball over three times and being held to 365 yards of total offense.

My Expert Pick

Cardinals are 2-5- 1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Cardinals are 1-3- 1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Take Boston College and the points in NCAA football betting.