Michigan at Purdue Week 4 College Football Lines & Expert Pick

Michigan at Purdue Week 4 College Football Lines & Expert Pick

Written by on September 20, 2017

Before the season, this week’s game between No. 8 Michigan and Purdue looked like an easy Wolverines victory. Maybe that will still happen, but the Boilermakers look much-improved in 2017 under first-year coach Jeff Brohm. As of now, the College Football lines give the Wolveriens the upper hand, with Michigan as the -10 points betting favorite. But any stage of season, surprise can happen and that could the case for Purdue.

Michigan at Purdue Week 4 College Football Lines & Expert Pick

When: Saturday, 4 PM ETWhere: Ross-Ade StadiumTV: FoxStream: Fox Sports GoRadio: Michigan IMG Sports Network (Michigan) / WAZY 96.5 FM (Purdue)Opening College Football Lines: Michigan -10 (52)

Series History

This will be the 59th meeting between the Wolverines and Boilermakers. Michigan leads the all-time series, 44-14, and has victories in the past three matchups. The teams haven’t played for a few years.
  • Total Meetings: 58
  • First Meeting: November 1st, 1890. Ann Arbor, Michigan
  • Last Meeting: October 6th, 2012. West Lafayette, Indiana
  • All-Time Series: Michigan 44-14-0
  • Largest Margin of Victory: Michigan 51-0 (1974)
  • Longest Win Streak: Michigan 9 (198501995)
  • Current Win Streak: Michigan 3 (2010-2012)

College Football Lines Trends for Week 4

  • Michigan is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
  • Michigan is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 18 of Michigan’s last 24 games
  • Purdue is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Purdue is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of Purdue’s last 17 games

Best College Football Week 4 ATS Betting Picks

Why Bet on Michigan?

Yes, the Wolverines are 3-0 and the defense is again one of the nation’s best, but the offense hasn’t gotten going yet and is a concern entering the Big Ten opener. Michigan comes off a 29-13 win over Air Force. Sophomore kicker Quinn Nordin went 5-for-5 on field-goal attempts to tie Michigan’s single-game record.Freshman wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones returned a punt 79 yards for a touchdown early in the third quarter for his first collegiate TD. It was the longest U-M punt return for a touchdown since Steve Breaston returned one 83 yards at Indiana on Nov. 11, 2006. Senior running back Ty Isaac, who ran for 89 yards on 16 carries, boasts 336 rushing yards through three games this season, the best three-game total by any U-M running back since Mike Hart posted 502 yards through the opening three games of 2007.Senior quarterback Wilton Speight improved to 12-3 as Michigan’s starter, completing 14-of-23 passes for 169 yards. He moved to 12th among U-M’s all-time leaders in both career attempts (433) and passing yards (3,182).The Wolverines have lost receiver Tarik Black for a while — maybe not until 2018 due to a foot injury that will require surgery. Black left Saturday’s win over Air Force on the back of a golf cart after injuring his foot. Jim Harbaugh said that he isn’t sure whether Black will be healthy enough to play at any point in 2017. The freshman started all three games and is the Wolverines’ leading receiver with 11 catches for 149 yards.Michigan has won 10 of its last 11 Big Ten openers and 33 of its last 35 conference openers. The Wolverines boast a 46-3 mark since 1968 in their first Big Ten game of the season. This will be U-M’s 43rd conference opener on the road and the school is 30-11-1. U-M has won 14 of its past 15 conference openers on the road, with its only setback coming 23-20 at Wisconsin in 2005.

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 32.67
  • Total Yards: 402
  • Rush Yards: 199.33
  • Passing Yards: 202.67
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 14.67
  • Total Yards: 208
  • Rush Yards: 82.33
  • Passing Yards: 125.67

Why Bet on Purdue?

The Boilers (2-1) would tie their 2016 win total with a victory here on Homecoming. Brohm has quickly created a buzz in West Lafayette, as he has the Boilermakers playing well in every phase of the game. Has there been a more impressive first-year coach in America? This is Purdue’s biggest test so far this season, and perhaps the best defense they will face all season. Purdue was able to take advantage of weak defenses against Louisville, Ohio, and Missouri.Purdue comes off a 35-3 rout of Missouri. As usual, Purdue used a two-quarterback system, and both played well. David Blough completed 22 of 28 passes for 187 yards and one touchdown. Elijah Sindelar completed 4 of 6 passes for 85 yards and one touchdown. Tario Fuller carried 19 times for 90 yards and a score.The 32-point victory was Purdue’s most resounding on the road since a 47-13 win at Central Florida on Sept. 4, 1999. The Boilermakers boast 10 road wins by 30-plus points in the last 50 seasons and 26 in school history. Six of them came before 1900.The three points surrendered by the Boilermakers were the fewest since a 59-0 win over Southeast Missouri on Sept. 17, 2011; the fewest to an FBS opponent since a 37-3 win over Illinois on Nov. 12, 2005; and the fewest on the road since a 48-3 win at Illinois on Oct. 25, 1997.Purdue dominated the time of possession against Missouri — 43:43 to 16:17. Out of 13 possessions, the defense forced four three-and-outs and had two interceptions. The Tigers’ longest drive lasted merely 1:51.The Boilermakers have scored 107 points in their first three games under Brohm. That total ranks as the fourth-most by a Purdue team under a first-year coach. The top three: 180 points in 1893 (David Balliet), 134 points in 1891 (Knowlton Ames) and 109 points in 2009 (Danny Hope).

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 35.67
  • Total Yards: 459.67
  • Rush Yards: 173
  • Passing Yards: 286.67
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 19.67
  • Total Yards: 374.33
  • Rush Yards: 125.33
  • Passing Yards: 249

College Football Lines Pick & Prediction

My top pick here would be under that total with Michigan’s defense. Give the points if you prefer the side.
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