How to Bet Mississippi State at Alabama NCAA Football Week 11 Spread.

How to Bet Mississippi State at Alabama NCAA Football Week 11 Spread

Written by on November 7, 2018

Look at the standings across most of the bigger conferences in college football and you will see a lot of races that are destined to go down to the wire. There are a couple of exceptions in there, though, including the SEC, where the combatants in the Conference Championship Game have been decided, with Georgia and Alabama set to face off in a rerun of the National Championship Game from last season. You might think that clinching so early would mean that those teams can relax, but there are still the final playoff rankings to be decided.

The Alabama Crimson Tide look like an absolute lock to be in the playoffs once again, as no-one has been able to get close to touching them this season. They will put their perfect record on the line this week when the Mississippi State Bulldogs head into Tuscaloosa. The champions are in as a lofty 24 point favorite, with the point total set at 52 ½. That’s a lot of points for Alabama to cover, but it’s tough to bet against them at this point.

How to Bet Mississippi State at Alabama NCAA Football Week 11 Spread

  • When: Saturday, November 10 at 3:30 PM EST
  • Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa
  • TV: CBS
  • Radio: TuneIn
  • Live Stream: CBS Sports
  • NCAA Football Week 11 Spread: Alabama -24 (Total 54)

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Weather Forecast

  • Partly Cloudy: 11°C/51°F
  • Humidity: 35%
  • Precipitation: 0%
  • Cloud Cover: 39%
  • Wind: 8 mph N
  • Stadium Type: Open

Why bet on the Mississippi State Bulldogs?

Let’s start by saying that while the Bulldogs are a massive underdog here, they are also not a team that should be considered a total pushover. They are 6-3 SU on the season, with their losses coming against LSU, Florida, and Kentucky, all teams that were highly ranked when they went against them. One thing to take note of in those losses against good teams, though, is that the Bulldogs failed to cover in all three.

The Bulldogs have put those losses behind them and are coming into this one on a modest 2-game winning streak, outscoring the opposition 73-16 in those wins. The last 10 meetings with Alabama have seen the Bulldogs come out on the losing end. They are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 trips to Tuscaloosa, although they are 6-3 ATS overall this season.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Average Score For: 29.11
  • Total Yards: 417.78
  • Rush Yards: 230.78
  • Passing Yards: 187.00
Defense
  • Average Score Against: 12.33
  • Total Yards: 278.66
  • Rush Yards: 111.44
  • Passing Yards: 167.22

Why bet on the Alabama Crimson Tide?

What can you say about the Crimson Tide that hasn’t been said a million times already this season? The biggest knock on them was that they had yet to face a really good team, but they put that argument to rest with a dominating 29-0 win over LSU in Baton Rouge last week.

Mississippi State vs Alabama should be a victory for the Crimson Tide.

This is a team that could still potentially be playoff bound even if they lose to Georgia in the National Championship Game, assuming they don’t drop a game in the regular season, something that looks very unlikely at this point. Last week’s offensive output for Alabama was lower than usual, but they are still averaging over 51 PPG this season. They are also a healthy 6-3 ATS, although just 3-2 ATS at home.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Average Score For: 51.33
  • Total Yards: 565.56
  • Rush Yards: 224.00
  • Passing Yards: 341.56
Defense
  • Average Score Against: 14.11
  • Total Yards: 295.44
  • Rush Yards: 102.11
  • Passing Yards: 193.33

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Mississippi State at Alabama NCAA Football Week 11 Betting Trends

  • Mississippi State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
  • Mississippi State is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi State’s last 5 games
  • Alabama is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
  • Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of Alabama’s last 10 games

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction for Mississippi State at Alabama

I don’t think there is any real doubt about Alabama winning this game. It’s more just a matter of deciding whether they will be able to cover the large spread. Mississippi State will put some points on the board, some of which may come late when Bama have pulled their starters. I think the Bulldogs might just cover because of that.

NCAA Football Week 11 Score: Mississippi State Bulldogs 20 – Alabama Crimson Tide 42
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