Mississippi State at Alabama Lines, Expert Pick & TV Info

Posted by Kenny Bell on Wednesday,November 9, 2016 9:31, EDT in

Could we be looking at a major trap game for No. 1 Alabama on Saturday against unranked Mississippi State? The Crimson Tide probably have no chance of losing at home to the unranked Bulldogs, but Alabama is off a huge and very physical win over LSU last week. But Mybookie oddsmakers aren’t too worried here as Bama is a huge favorite in college football betting.

Mississippi State at Alabama Lines, Expert Pick & TV Info

When: Saturday, Nov. 12, Noon ET
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa
TV: ESPN
Opening NCAA Football Lines: Tide -28.5 (55.5)

Why Bet on Mississippi State?

The Bulldogs (4-5, 2-3 SEC) come off a 35-28 upset of No. 4 Texas A&M last Saturday. MSU’s first play from scrimmage set the tone for the day, as quarterback Nick Fitzgerald scampered 74 yards for a touchdown just minutes into the game. The Bulldogs went up 14-0 when running back Aeris Williams tumbled in from two yards out. The Aggies got as close as 14-7 and 28-21 but that was really the only drama.

Fitzgerald completed 18-of- 31 passes for 209 yards and two TD. He also rushed for 182 yards and two scores. Fitzgerald became just the third SEC QB in the past 20 seasons to throw for over 200 yards and rush for over 175 yards in a game, joining Cam Newton and Johnny Manziel. Fitzgerald is third in the SEC in total offense, putting up 282.7 yards per game. He’s accounted for 24 (16 pass, 8 rush) of MSU’s 33 offensive TDs this season (72.7%).

Williams added a career-high 140 yards with his one score. Ross led State’s receivers with six catches for 98 yards and 2 TDs. The Bulldogs gained 500-plus yards of total offense for the second-consecutive game, the first since 2014’s LSU and Texas A&M games. The 574 total yards were the 11th most in MSU history for a single game. MSU has gained 250-plus yards rushing in three-consecutive games, after Saturday’s 365 total. The 365 yards are the most rushing yards for MSU since 2010’s 409 earned against Houston. The win was State’ss highest-ranked victory since downing No. 2 Auburn in Starkville in 2014.

The last time MSU and Bama met in Tuscaloosa, it was No. 1 Mississippi State vs. No. 3 Alabama in a game the Crimson Tide won 25-20 on Nov. 15, 2014.

Why Bet on Alabama?

The Tide beat No. 15 LSU 10-0 in their final true road game of the season and they seem to have a clear path to an unbeaten regular season, spot in the SEC title game and return to the College Football Playoff. Alabama limited LSU to six first downs on the night and 125 total yards. After rushing for a school-record 284 yards in his last outing, LSU running back Leonard Fournette was held to just 35 yards on 17 attempts. The Tide’s shutout marked Alabama’s first SEC road game shutout victory since a 52-0 win at Arkansas on Sept. 15, 2012. The shutout marked Alabama’s 16th SEC road shutout win since 1958.

Alabama freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts scored his 10th rushing touchdown of the season and 22nd overall in the fourth quarter, while completing 10-of- 19 passes for 107 yards with one interception. He also tallied a team-high 114 yards and a touchdown on 20-rushing attempts. Alabama owns the longest winning streak in the Football Bowl Subdivision, having won 21 consecutive games dating back to last season (last loss: Sept. 19, 2015 vs. Ole Miss).

The Tide could have plenty of success vs. the MSU defense. Mississippi State is 104th nationally in pass defense and tied for 113th out of 128 teams in passing touchdowns allowed, having yielded 21 passing touchdowns. The Bulldogs have also been inconsistent against the run.

Alabama leads the series vs. MSU 79-18- 3. The Tide have won eight straight in the series and four in a row in Tuscaloosa. MSU’s last win over Alabama was Nov. 10, 2007.

Mississippi State at Alabama Expert Pick:

Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
Crimson Tide are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
Under is 14-2- 1 in the last 17 meetings.

Take the points, go under the total in NCAA Football betting.