Mississippi State at Kentucky NCAA Football Week 4 Spread & Prediction

Mississippi State at Kentucky NCAA Football Week 4 Spread

Written by on September 21, 2018

Surprising 3-0 Kentucky hosts #14 Mississippi State in an important SEC clash on Saturday, Sep. 22. Kentucky looked great when upsetting Florida in Week 2. Can they pull off another big upset win over a ranked SEC rival in Week 4? Check out NCAAF odds, analysis, and a pick against the spread when Mississippi State heads to the Bluegrass State to take on the Kentucky Wildcats!

Mississippi State at Kentucky NCAA Football Week 4 Spread & Prediction

When: Saturday, Sep. 22 at 7:00 pm ET Where: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY TV: ESPN 2 Radio: TuneIn Live Stream: WatchESPN ATS Odds: Mississippi State -9.5 (-110) Over/Under Total Odds: 55.5 (-110)

Weather Forecast

  • Chance of Rain: 19°C/66°F
  • Humidity: 73%
  • Precipitation: 38%
  • Wind: 8 mph NE
  • Cloud Cover: 75%
  • Type of Stadium: Open

Why Mississippi State is a good bet at -9.5?

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are one of the few teams that averages 50 points per game while holding opponents to less than 10 points per game. No team has challenged the Bulldogs yet this season. Even Kansas State didn’t put up a fight. In a road game versus K-State, Mississippi State went about their business for a 31-10 win as a -6.5 road favorite. Mississippi State blasted Louisiana-Lafayette 56-10 in Week 3. They dominated Stephen F. Austin 63-6 in Week 1. Miss State could be the best team in the SEC and nobody knows it yet.

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 50
  • Total Yards: 587.7
  • Pass Yards: 276
  • Rush Yards: 311.7
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 8.7
  • Total Yards: 259
  • Pass Yards: 174
  • Rush Yards: 85

Why Kentucky is a good bet at +9.5?

Is Kentucky a safe bet for NCAA Football Week 4? Forget the wins over Central Michigan and Murray State, the Kentucky Wildcats went into The Swamp and beat the Florida Gators straight up as a +13.5 dog. How did Kentucky pull it off? Defense. Okay, offense had something to do with it, but they really pulled it off because of their excellent defense. The Wildcats held Florida’s offense to only 16 points by picking off quarterback Feleipe Franks, recovering a forced fumble, and holding Florida’s offense to 360 total yards. Then when Kentucky got the ball, they ran it right through Florida’s defense. The Wildcats averaged 7.7 yards per carry on their way to 303 total rushing yards. If Kentucky can repeat that performance against Mississippi State, they could upset the favored Bulldogs.

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 36.7
  • Total Yards: 469.7
  • Pass Yards: 187.3
  • Rush Yards: 282.3
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 15.3
  • Total Yards: 305.7
  • Pass Yards: 183
  • Rush Yards: 122.7

NCAA Football Betting Trends for Mississippi State at Kentucky

  • Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games
  • Mississippi State is 5-1 SU in the last 6 games
  • The total went UNDER in 4 of Mississippi State’s last 5 games on the road
  • Kentucky is 3-9 ATS in the last 12 games
  • Kentucky is 5-2 SU in the last 7 games at home
  • The total went OVER in 6 of Kentucky’s last 9 games

Mississippi State at Kentucky Final Betting Analysis

Kentucky’s a good football team. The Wildcats play a brand of offense that forces you to adjust. If you decide to creep up a safety, putting 8 men in the box, they’ll readjust and throw the football. Kentucky quarterback Terry Wilson completes 69.5% of his passes. But, Wilson can also be careless with the football. Mississippi State has one of the top defenses in college football. It should be difficult for the Kentucky offense to rush the football against Miss State because the Bulldogs only allow 85 rushing yards per. If Kentucky gets behind and tries to lean on Wilson, he’ll make a couple of mistakes. I like Mississippi State to cover. NCAA Football Week 4 Pick: Mississippi State -9.5
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