Mississippi State vs. Louisiana Tech NCAA Football Odds Preview

Posted by Daniel Strum on October 16, 2015 in

Both the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and the Mississippi State Bulldogs are 4-2 on the year. In addition, both teams are coming off victories in their previous games and will be looking to continue their recent successes on Saturday. Which of the two Bulldogs will have the all-important winning bite? Read on for a College Football betting breakdown of the matchup.

How To Bet the Bulldogs vs. Bulldogs NCAA Football Odds, TV & Game Info

Venue: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
Date: Saturday, October 17, 2015
Time: 12:00 PM ET

Betting on the Mississippi State Bulldogs

In last week’s matchup, Mississippi State comfortably got past Troy, recording a 45-17 blowout win in the process. The resoluteness of the offense has been key to the team’s campaign, averaging 32.3 PPG and 422.5 YPG while turning the ball over just seven times this campaign. Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott has been the most crucial piece in the program’s offense. He has already recorded 1,353 passing yards and his TD-INT ratio is eight TDs vs. zero INTs.

In his previous game, Prescott completed two plays for 65 yards in the first quarter before paving way for backup Nick Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald filled in for Prescott nicely, completing 6 of his 7 passes with two passing TDs together with 170 yards of total offense. De’Runnya Wilson also impressed in the victory, pulling in three receptions for 82 yards and one TD, with Fred Ross also putting his name on the scoreboard with 64 receiving yards and a TD on two catches.

This passing offense that is completing 65.5 percent of its passes (good for a 25th-ranking in the nation) will need to have another good game because Louisiana Tech’s has a stingy running defense (ranked 24th in the country, giving up just 114.8 YPG rushing), so moving the ball on the ground won’t be easy.

On the D-line, Mississippi State is decently allowing just 17.7 PPG and 361 YPG. The defense has additionally recorded four INTs, a fumble recovery and 17 sacks this season, something Louisiana Tech’s O-line must be wary of, especially in regards to sacking. Richie Brown, who leads the defense with 54 tackles, three sacks, and an interception this campaign, will be the player to watch in this disruptive defense.

Betting on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are riding high on a three game winning streak, including the 34-31 victory over UTSA last Saturday. The program has one of the strongest offensive units in the nation, averaging 39 points per game. QB Jeff Driskel continues to prove his worth, with 1,812 passing yards with 11 TDs to his name this year. Meanwhile, RB Kenneth Dixon has been the heart and soul of the running game, having rushed for 583 yards with six TDs.

In their last outing against UTSA, Driskel completed 28 of his 44 passes for 351 yards, one TD and two INTs. Trent Taylor was the major beneficiary of Driskel’s bombs, grabbing 13 receptions for 143 yards, Jarred Craft racked up a team-leading 72 rushing yards with a TD on 19 carries, along with a strong game from Dixon.

Given Mississippi State is an offense-first team but with a defense that can put the clamps on even the best of offenses, Driskel and his versatile unit must have a good game plan that is able to exploit mistakes from the visitors. Sufficient protection must also be offered to Driskel or else Mississippi State’s explosive pass rush unit will frustrate him all day.

As earlier mentioned, Louisiana Tech’s running defense is the team’s strongest suit on this side of the ball. In essence, that is the reason the team is allowing 26.2 PPG and 361.5 YPG overall. Not that those are great numbers, but it certainly gives them a fighting chance against the visitors, especially if Beau Fitte (who leads the team with 46 tackles this season) and his unit can find ways of limiting Prescott’s mobility.

Mississippi State vs. Louisiana Tech Key Betting Trends

• Mississippi State is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
• Louisiana Tech is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games
• Mississippi State is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
• Louisiana Tech is 1-4 SU in its last five games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in seven of Mississippi State’s last 10 games.
• The total has gone OVER in four of Louisiana Tech’s last 6 games on the road

My Expert Game Analysis & Pick

Mississippi State has looked dominant at times, but the program has struggled against top-tier competition, something that guarantees some errors against the above-average Louisiana Tech team. However, although Driskel and his unit have the experience and skill to challenge Mississippi State’s respectable defense,  Prescott and Co. seemingly have a slight offensive edge, and will be more motivated to do well with their home field advantage. With that, we believe Louisiana Tech could keep the game close to cover the spread, but Mississippi State will still emerge victorious in a shootout affair that will take the game total OVER.