The 21st-ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs will look to avoid the upset and take another step toward improving their bowl game status when they hit the road to take on the in-state rival Mississippi Rebels on Thanksgiving Day.
Will the Dogs’ bite match their bark or will the rebels rise up to both, stop an ugly losing streak while defending their home turf against their long-time rivals?
Let’s get to my expert betting prediction on this matchup right now.
Mississippi State vs Ole Miss NCAA Football Week 13 Odds & Preview
- When: Thursday, November 22, 2018 at 7:30 PM ET
- Where: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Mississippi
- TV: ESPN
- Radio: Mississippi State / Mississippi
- Live Stream: WatchESPN
- NCAA Football Week 13 Odds: Mississippi State -9.5
- Clear: 7°C/45°F
- Humidity: 81%
- Precipitation: 3%
- Wind: 2 mph ESE
- Cloud Cover: 2%
- Type of Stadium: Open
Why Bet On Mississippi State?
Why should you bet on the Bulldogs in this Week 13 matchup? In addition to being the statistically better team on both sides of the ball, Mississippi State also has the best player on the field in this matchup in quarterback Nick Fitzgerald.
The Bulldogs rebounded from their 24-0 shutout loss against top-ranked Alabama in Week 11 to smack overmatched Arkansas around in their convincing 52-6 rout on Saturday. Fitzgerald threw four TD passes and ran for another while senior backup running back Aeris Williams rushed for 104 yards while starting in place of the injured Kylin Hill.
“To have a day like this with another senior, to go out there and have fun playing, putting up huge numbers in front of the home crowd for the last time, it was awesome,” Fitzgerald said.
- Average Score For: 28.55
- Total Yards: 400.36
- Pass Yards: 181.45
- Rush Yards: 218.91
- Average Score Against: 12.82
- Total Yards: 275.63
- Pass Yards: 165.27
- Rush Yards: 110.36
Why Bet On Ole Miss?
Why should you bet on the Rebels to pull off the huge upset? Well, they’re getting almost 10 points, so there’s that. Ole Miss should also be quite desperate seeing as how they’ve lost four consecutive games coming into this affair including their 36-29 overtime loss to
Vanderbilt on Saturday night. Quarterback Jordan Ta’amu passed for an impressive 457 yards and two touchdowns, but he also tossed a pair of costly interceptions in the defeat. The game ended in controversy with Ta’amu’s apparent 8-yard TD pass to A.J. Brown was overturned and the Commodores secured the win.
“It looked like he had possession, and he was down, and the guy knocked it out, that’s what it looked like on the jumbotron,” Ole Miss head coach Matt Luke said. “That’s what I saw.”
- Average Score For: 36.73
- Total Yards: 539.73
- Pass Yards: 364.09
- Rush Yards: 175.64
- Average Score Against: 36.27
- Total Yards: 489.09
- Pass Yards: 275.36
- Rush Yards: 213.73
Mississippi State vs Ole Miss NCAA Football Week 13 Betting Trends
- Mississippi State is 4-2 ATS in the last 6 games
- Mississippi State is 13-6 SU in the last 19 games
- The total went UNDER in 7 of Mississippi State’s last 8 games
- Mississippi is 0-5 ATS in the last 5 games
- Mississippi is 1-4 SU in the last 5 games
- The total went UNDER in 4 of Mississippi’s last 5 games when playing Mississippi State
Expert Analysis and Prediction for Mississippi State vs Ole Miss
I’m going to get right to the point by saying that I’m a bit surprised that Mississippi State isn’t a slightly bigger favorite, even on the road in this contest. The Bulldogs average 8.2 points per game more than the Rebels while simultaneously allowing an almost insane 24 fewer points per game than their in-state rivals defensively.
I know Ole Miss has won three of their last four meetings in this rivalry, but I believe that won’t matter one iota in this matchup. The Rebels are a winless 0-5 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record while Mississippi State has gone a nearly-perfect 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after totaling more than 450 total yards in their previous game and 9-3 ATS in their last dozen games after holding their opponent to less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Ole Miss is going down MYBookie college football betting faithful!
NCAA Football Week 13 Pick: Mississippi State 35 Mississippi 24