Missouri at West Virginia 2016 Week 1 Free Picks
The West Virginia Mountaineers and Missouri Tigers will both look to pick up a huge win in their regular season showdown, but only one team will get the ATS payday – and I know which one. Let’s find out now with these college football odds!
A Closer Look At The Tigers at Mountaineers 2016 Week 1 Free Picks
When: Saturday, September 3, 2016
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Where: Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, WV
TV: SEC Network
Live Stream: NCAA Live
NCAAF Odds: West Virginia -11
Bet The Missouri Tigers at +11 Because…
The best reason to back the Missouri Tigers is that they’re generally a winning program and have a really good head coach. Missouri (5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS) struggled mightily in 2015, winning just five games while struggling to pass and run the ball. The good news is that quarterback Drew Lock should be better with a full year of experience under his belt after completing a woeful 49 percent of his passes as a true freshman.
Growing up with Lock will be a young receiver group that saw underclassmen nab 121 of Missouri’s 186 pass receptions a year ago. Unfortunately, the Tigers will be breaking in an almost completely new offensive line and have yet to name their starting running back.
Defensively the Tigers are loaded after laying fantastic football a year ago. Mizzou has a quartet of defensive linemen that all look like they could play at the next level in the near future while the linebacker position is brimming with experience. In the secondary, the Tigers need two new stating safeties, but overall, the Missouri looks like they could be powerful.
Bet The West Virginia Mountaineers at -11 Because…
The best reason to back West Virginia (8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS) is that they’re playing at home and will likely have an explosive offense in 2016. The Mountaineers won eight games a year ago but closed out the 2015 season with a pair of crushing one-point losses in each of their final two games. Still, West Virginia ranked an impressive 22nd in total offense and a solid 35th in scoring (34.0 ppg) while also finishing 44th nationally in pints allowed (24.6 ppg).
More importantly, the Mountaineers return nearly all of their starters from last season, although they will be without Big 12 rushing leader Wendell Smallwood. Quarterback Skyler Howard is the unquestioned starter as he enters his senior season and second year as the starter and he’ll be throwing to a complimentary group of gifted ad experienced wide receivers.
Defensively, West Virginia will be in a rebuilding mode as they try to replace a dozen players including eight starters, including both starting safeties and all three starting linebackers. If the Mountaineers stumble in 2016, I will almost assuredly be on the defensive side of the ball.
Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction
Let me get right to the point by saying that I fully expect Missouri to cover he college football betting line because of their elite defense. The Mountaineers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in the month of September, but they’re also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
I know the Missouri Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games in the month of September, but I think the point spread in this intriguing matchup should be somewhere closer to six points at most. Missouri may not win outright, but the Tigers will cover!
My Pick: West Virginia 27 Missouri 21