Missouri vs Kentucky 2019 College Football Week 9 Odds & Expert Analysis.

Missouri vs Kentucky 2019 College Football Week 9 Odds & Expert Analysis

Written by on October 25, 2019

Behind Clemson transfer quarterback Kelly Bryant, Missouri has been a pleasant surprise in the SEC this season and the Tigers are still very much in the East Division race. They are solid favorites on the NCAA football odds Saturday at struggling Kentucky.

How to Bet Missouri vs Kentucky College Football Week 9 Odds & Game Info

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Missouri vs Kentucky Last Meeting

Missouri lost 15-14 at home to then-No. 12 Kentucky last year. Terry Wilson threw a 2-yard TD pass to tight end CJ Conrad on the last play of the game. Missouri led 14-3 midway through the fourth quarter and appeared to have the game in hand after stuffing UK running back A.J. Rose on a fourth-and-goal play from the 2-yard line. But Kentucky forced a punt that Lynn Bowden Jr. returned 67 yards for a touchdown. The Tigers had a chance to put the game away in the final two minutes when it faced a third-and-2 situation from its own 26. But Drew Lock’s pass fell incomplete.

The Tigers have lost four consecutive games vs. Kentucky, including two in Lexington. Three of those four games have been decided by one score.

Weather Forecast

  • Partly Cloudy: 13°C/56°F
  • Humidity: 85%
  • Precipitation: 70%
  • Cloud Cover: 93%
  • Wind: 9 mph S
  • Stadium Type: Open

Why Bet on Missouri?

Missouri comes off a 21-14 upset loss at Vanderbilt last week to snap the Tigers’ five-game winning streak. Vanderbilt took the lead for good in the fourth quarter on a 21-yard pass from Neal Riley to Cam Johnson, and Mizzou was unable to respond.

Tigers QB Kelly Bryant went 13-26 for 140 yards and one TD while rushing for 72 yards on 16 carries. Junior RB Larry Rountree III had a rushing TD, his eighth of the season. Sophomore WR Kam Scott had two receptions and a team-high 69 receiving yards. Tight end Albert Okwuegbunam hauled in his 23rd career TD reception, moving him into sole possession of second place on the Mizzou career TD receptions list.

Sophomore LB Nick Bolton made a career-high 15 tackles and matched a career high with three tackles for loss. He now leads the SEC in tackles per game (8.7) and solo tackles per game (6.0) and is second on the team with 6.0 tackles for loss this season as he is putting together a breakout sophomore season.

More Numbers

Mizzou’s last 13 interceptions have all been converted to touchdowns, dating back to last year’s game at Tennessee. Every interception it has had since that game has been converted to a touchdown, including four pick-six scores. The Tigers have five defensive touchdowns this year, the best in the nation. Mizzou’s opponents have reached the red zone just 14 times this year – that’s the seventh-fewest nationally and the second-fewest allowed by any SEC team, trailing only Georgia (12 through seven games).

Mizzou has one of the nation’s oddest schedules this season. After opening on the road week one at Wyoming, Mizzou then returned home for its next five games and won all five in its longest home stretch since 1908. But now the schedule gets road-heavy as the Tigers will go 35 days between home games. Mizzou is the only Power 5 team to go that long between home games this season.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Points per Game: 38.83
  • Passing Yards: 274.83
  • Rushing Yards: 199.50
  • Yards per Play: 6.17
Defense
  • Points per Game: 15.83
  • Passing Yards: 154.67
  • Rushing Yards: 108.00
  • Yards per Play: 4.04

Why Bet on Kentucky?

Kentucky was a 21-0 loser at Georgia last week. Lynn Bowden Jr. rushed for 99 yards in the slippery conditions, while Asim Rose rushed for 37 yards. Bowden, playing quarterback once again in place of the injured Sawyer Smith, completed just two passes in the game for 15 yards through the air. Kentucky was shut out for the first time since Nov. 12, 2012, a stretch of 83 games in which the Cats had scored. Bowden, a Paul Hornung Award nominee for the nation’s most versatile athlete, ranks 10th nationally and leads the SEC in all-purpose yards, averaging 142.1 yards per game.

The Kentucky defense more than held its own against the powerful Georgia offense. The Bulldogs had just 270 yards of total offense in the game, including just 35 yards passing. Georgia’s longest pass play was 22 yards. Kentucky entered the game as one of only seven FBS teams that have not allowed a pass play of 40 yards this season. UK did not give up a touchdown pass and entered the game tied for first among FBS teams with the fewest touchdown passes allowed, three.

Key Numbers

Kentucky has allowed 34 points or less in 21 straight games, the longest active streak in the nation. The 21 straight games at 34 points or less is the longest for Kentucky since a 45-game streak from 1976-80.

Missouri vs Kentucky is going to be a close one.

This is coach Mark Stoops’ seventh season in Lexington and the Wildcats have either matched or exceeded the previous season’s win total in each of the past six seasons, making them the only program in FBS to accomplish that feat. That’s going to end this year, though.

Kentucky has played five true freshmen (M.J. Devonshire, Taj Dodson, Moses Douglass, DeMarcus Harris and Tra Wilkins) and 14 redshirt freshmen in at least one game this season. UK is 9-5 in its last 14 SEC home games, best since a 9-5 stretch from 1953-57.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Points per Game: 23.50
  • Passing Yards: 192.00
  • Rushing Yards: 192.33
  • Yards per Play: 5.57
Defense
  • Points per Game: 23.67
  • Passing Yards: 207.50
  • Rushing Yards: 173.17
  • Yards per Play: 5.89

Missouri vs Kentucky College Football Week 9 Betting Trends

  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings
  • Tigers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games against an opponent in the Southeast conference
  • Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Missouri’s last 6 games played in week 9
  • Wildcats are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games played in week 9
  • Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played on a Saturday
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kentucky’s last 5 games played in October

Expert Final Score Prediction for Missouri vs Kentucky

Missouri 23 – Kentucky 19

 

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