Navy vs UCF 2018 NCAA Football Week 11 Lines & Analysis

Navy vs UCF 2018 NCAA Football Week 11 Lines & Analysis

Written by on November 8, 2018

Navy heads to Orlando to try and do something no UCF opponent has done in 21 straight games, beat the Knights straight up. The chances of that happening aren’t great. But, can Navy play well enough for the cover win as a massive road underdog?

Navy vs UCF 2018 NCAA Football Week 11 Lines & Analysis

  • When: Saturday, Nov. 10 at 12:00 pm ET
  • Where: Spectrum Stadium, Orlando. FL
  • TV: ESPN
  • Radio: Navy / UCF
  • Live Stream: WatchESPN
  • ATS Odds: UCF -25.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under Total Odds: 63 (-110)

Why Navy is a good bet at +25.5?

Navy hasn’t been it’s usual stellar self this season, going 2-7 straight up in 9 games. But, the Midshipmen have hung in their in most games. As a +22.5 dog against Notre Dame earlier this season, Navy spotted the Irish a 27-0 halftime lead.

The Midshipmen didn’t quit. Instead, they fought hard to outscore Notre Dame 22-17 in the second half for an improbable cover by half a point. That type of grit means no matter the score against UCF heading into halftime, Navy could manage a way to win against the spread.

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 25.1
  • Total Yards: 358.8
  • Pass Yards: 71.9
  • Rush Yards: 286.9
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 36.2
  • Total Yards: 441.9
  • Pass Yards: 255
  • Rush Yards: 186.9

Why #12 UCF is a good bet at -25.5?

Is UCF a secure bet for NCAA Football Week 11?

The Knights haven’t lost since a bowl game in 2016 to Arkansas State. They’ve gone an incredible 21-0 since then. In last year’s bowl game, they beat SEC power Auburn.

In 8 games this season, UCF is 6-2 ATS. The against the spread record includes going 4-1 ATS in 5 home games. The Knights love to demolish their opponents and should do so on Saturday.

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 45.4
  • Total Yards: 548.8
  • Pass Yards: 280.5
  • Rush Yards: 268.2
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 20.9
  • Total Yards: 429.8
  • Pass Yards: 241.5
  • Rush Yards: 188.2

NCAA Football Betting Trends for Navy vs UCF

  • Navy is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss
  • Navy is 1-6 ATS versus a team with a winning record
  • UCF is 8-2 ATS versus a team with a losing record
  • UCF is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games

Navy vs UCF Final NCAAF Betting Analysis

In Navy’s win cover against the Irish, Notre Dame called off the starters after running out to a huge 27-0 lead. Navy played well, but they were at home and Notre Dame didn’t want to put too big of a beat down on the Midshipmen.

UCF will have no qualms about beating Navy by as much as they can. The Knights feel that again the College Football Playoff Committee is slighting them because they don’t play in a Big 5 Conference. What more can you do than to win 21 straight games?

Coach Josh Heupel and his team will take the slight to heart. They’re going to try and score 60 points or more on Navy to try and get the CFP’s attention.

NCAA Football Week 11 Pick: UCF -25.5
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