Week 1 NCAAF Odds Louisville Cardinals at Purdue Boilermakers

Week 1 NCAAF Odds: Louisville Cardinals at Purdue Boilermakers

Written by on September 1, 2017

The Purdue Boilermakers will kick off the Jeff Brohm era looking to pick up a huge victory against 2016 Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson and a Louisville Cardinals team that is hoping to contend for an ACC conference crown and berth in the four-team playoff in 2017. The Cardinals are on the road against the Boilermakers on Saturday, September 2, at 7:30 PM ET, from Lucas Oil Stadium with this matchup airing live on FOX. So, who will have the NCAAF odds against them? For this matchup, Louisville is the betting underdog against Purdue.

In Depth Analysis on the Week 1 NCAAF Odds: Louisville Cardinals at Purdue Boilermakers

When: Saturday, September 2, 7:30 PM ET Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana TV: FOX Live Stream: Fox Sports Go NCAAF Odds: Louisville -24.5 / Total: 68 Weather Forecast
  • Partly Cloudy: 21°C/69°F
  • Humidity: 63%
  • Precipitation: 11%
  • Cloud Cover: 59%
  • Wind: 6 mph NNW
  • Stadium Type: N/A
  • Wind Field Impact: N/A

Why Bet the Louisville Cardinals NCAAF Odds at -24.5?

It’s pretty amazing to me that, despite having one of the best and most unique seasons we’ve ever seen in college football history, no one is really talking very much about Lamar Jackson and his chances of winning back-to-back Heisman trophies or Louisville’s chance of winning the ACC in 2017. Well, I believe both could happen after watching the Cardinals going 9-4 last season and Jackson unleash a season for the ages by passing for 3,543 passing yards and 30 TD passes while rushing for an additionally phnomenal 1,571 yards and 21 additional touchdowns. “I’ll tell you what I like about Lamar. He goes out on the practice field and tries to outwork every single person out there. He loves it, he enjoys it,” Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino said earlier this week. “Lamar tries to sprint all the way to the end zone and then jog all the way back and not miss the next play ever. He comes to practice and meetings focused. He wants to be coached and he wants to get better, and he really likes his teammates. Louisville averaged a stellar 42.5 points per game to rank sixth in the nation. Unfortunately, they lost three offensive linemen, their No. 1 running back and top three wide receivers. There is talent at the skill positions, but they’ll have to grow up in a hurry and perform to give Jackson some help, which he clearly needed late in the regular season.

College Football Week 1: BYU vs. LSU Betting Lines & Game Info

Defense Analysis

Defensively, Louisville was a lot better than most people know in limiting the opposition to a modest 23.8 points per game to rank 31st in points allowed nationally. Linebacker Stacy Thomas returns after recording 85 tackles last season and hybrid end/linebacker James Hearns is back after recording eight sacks. The secondary features four returning starters, including gifted cornerback Jaire Alexander who had five interceptions while guarding the opponent’s top wideout each game.

Latest NCAAF Odds Trends

  • Louisville Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in its last 6 college football games
  • The Louisville Cardinals are 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of Louisville Cardinals’ last 18 games
  • The current total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisville’s last 6 college football games

Why Bet the Purdue Boilermakers NCAAF Odds at +24.5?

The Boilermakers are heading in a new direction under former Bobby Petrino disciple, Louisville quarterback and most recently, Western Kentucky head coach Jeff Brohm. A former quarterback and Louisville offensive coordinator, Brohm went 30-10 in three years leading the Hilltoppers and routinely lit up the scoreboard during his time at Western Kentucky. Week 1 NCAAF Odds: The Boilermakers are heading in a new direction under former Bobby Petrino disciple, Louisville quarterback and most recently, Western Kentucky head coach Jeff Brohm. Brohm inherits a team that was uninspiring on both sides of the ball a year ago in averaging a modest 24.6 points per game (101st) while allowing a whopping 38.2 points per contest to rank a mostly pitiful 117th nationally. Brohm has 11 returning starters,, none as important as starting quarterback David Blough, passed for over 3,352 with 25 touchdowns, but a costly 21 interceptions. Running backs Markell Jones and Brian Lankford-Johnson are expected to be key contributors in the rushing attack while Brohm identifies his top receiving options.

Defense Analysis

Defensively, Purdue returns six of its top seven tacklers from 2016 including linebacker Markus Bailey (97 tackles) and defensive lineman Gelen Robinson (five sacks). Even with his returning starters on both sides of the ball. Brohm knows he has his work cut out for him in transforming the Boilermakers into his kind of team. “The majority of people told me not to take this job,” Brohm said. “The more I looked at it, I said, ‘No, let’s go earn my stripes.’ I want to be a difference-maker. I don’t put a lot on numbers, but I do put a lot on wins,” he said. “If we set out to play harder, to play smarter and to play tougher than other teams, those three things we have to set out to do every single game. Those three things are visible to people in the stands.”

Latest NCAAF Odds Trends

  • The Purdue Boilermakers are 0-5 SU in its last 5 college football games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Purdue Boilermakers’ last 5 college football games

Expert Analysis and NCAAF Odds Prediction

While I like Lamar Jackson and the Louisville Cardinals to get the win in this Week 1 matchup, I’m going with the Purdue Boilermakers to cover the college football betting line as three-touchdown-plus home dogs. Louisville may be 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September, but the Cardinals are also just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  While the Boilermakers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games, they’ve also put together a perfect 4-0 ATS mark in their last 4 games on fieldturf. More importantly, I think the hiring of Jeff Brohm is going to help the Boilermakers improve moving forward and I’m expecting a good effort in this contest, even though I just don’t see the outright upset happening! NCAAF Odds Pick: Louisville 42 Purdue 24
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