Ole Miss vs LSU NCAA Football Week 5 Spread & Analysis

Ole Miss vs LSU NCAA Football Week 5 Spread & Analysis

Written by on September 28, 2018


#6 LSU hosts rival Ole Miss in a classic SEC battle on Saturday, Sep. 29. Can the LSU Tigers beat Ole Miss and cover by the -10.5 points? Or, will Ole Miss shock LSU in Baton Rouge? Check out the latest NCAA Football Week 5 odds, analysis, and a pick for LSU versus Ole Miss!

Ole Miss vs LSU NCAA Football Week 5 Spread & Analysis

When: Saturday, Sep. 29 at 9:00 pm ET Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA TV: ESPN Radio: Ole Miss / LSU Live Stream: WatchESPN ATS Odds: LSU -10.5 (-110) Over/Under Total Odds: 59.5 (-110)

Weather Forecast

  • Mostly Cloudy: 23°C/74°F
  • Humidity: 92%
  • Precipitation: 15%
  • Wind: 3 mph ENE
  • Cloud Cover: 78%
  • Type of Stadium: Open

Why Ole Miss is a good bet at +10.5?


Although Alabama beat the Rebels 62-7, Ole Miss does have a signature win this season. The Rebels beat Texas Tech 47-27 in Texas Tech on Sep. 1. Ole Miss has also beaten two other teams this season: Southern Illinois 76-41, and Kent 38-17.

The victory over Kent is particularly telling because that came on the heels of losing so badly to Bama. Ole Miss showed it can bounce back with a good effort.

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 42
  • Total Yards: 522.8
  • Pass Yards: 347.5
  • Rush Yards: 175.2
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 36.8
  • Total Yards: 502.8
  • Pass Yards: 314.5
  • Rush Yards: 188.2

Why #6 LSU is a good bet at -10.5?

Is LSU a safe bet for NCAA Football Week 5?
The LSU Tigers might be the most surprising team this college football season. In the first month of the season, LSU battled then two Top 10 ranked teams in Miami and Auburn. LSU beat both those teams.

The Tigers defense is as good this season as it has been in years past. LSU only allows 14.8 points per game on average and that’s after playing a couple of high-powered offenses like Auburn’s and Miami’s. LSU’s D should have no trouble stopping Ole Miss’ offense.

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 31
  • Total Yards: 352.5
  • Pass Yards: 182.8
  • Rush Yards: 169.8
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 14.8
  • Total Yards: 335.2
  • Pass Yards: 244
  • Rush Yards: 91.2

NCAA Football Betting Trends for Ole Miss vs LSU

  • Mississippi is 7-15-1 ATS in the last 23 games
  • Mississippi is 4-1 SU in the last 5 games
  • The total went OVER in 9 of Mississippi’s last 13 games
  • Louisiana State is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games
  • Louisiana State is 7-1 SU in the last 8 games
  • The total went UNDER in 6 of Louisiana State’s last 9 games

Ole Miss vs LSU Final Betting Analysis


Neither team appears to have the edge, which is why it’s hard not to notice the action on this game. LSU opened as a -14 favorite before diving to -10.5 favoritism. More than 60% of football handicappers currently favor the Tigers at -10.5.

Still, the spread drop was massive enough to question if LSU’s defense can stop what can be a high-scoring Ole Miss offense. The guess here is that LSU steps it up versus opponents that it must to win straight up, not just cover spreads.

LSU never looks past its SEC opponents. The Tigers should win and cover versus an Ole Miss team that lacks any real defensive pressure.

NCAA Football Week 4 Pick: LSU -10.5
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