Oregon vs. Washington State NCAA Football Odds Preview

Posted by Daniel Strum on October 10, 2015 in

The Oregon Ducks will be battling it out with the Washington State Cougars on Saturday in a College Football betting lines game that will feature the Pac-12’s second-leading passer, Luke Falk (1,459 yards, 10 TDs), and second-leading rusher, Royce Freeman (613 yards, 7 TDs). The Cougars have gone 2-2 thus far this season, while the Ducks are 3-2. Will Washington State secure a road win and go above the .500 mark, or will Oregon win the game and continue its silent campaign for a berth in Pac 12 Championship game? Find out, as we give the game breakdown below.

How To Bet the Ducks vs. Cougars NCAA Football Odds, TV & Game Info

Venue: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
Date: Saturday, October 10, 2015
Time: 6:00 PM ET
TV: PAC 12
NCAAF Odds: Washington State (+17), Oregon (-17), OVER/UNDER 71

Betting on the Oregon Ducks

Oregon has struggled to fill the void left behind by QB Marcus Mariota, who now is now a starter in the NFL for the Tennessee Titans. Nevertheless, the Ducks’ still have a lethal offensive ground game that is averaging 300.4 YPG, led by Freeman, who was one of Mariota’s top targets last season.

After suffering their second loss of the season in Week 4 in a blowout defeat to Utah, the Ducks bounced back with a 41-24 win over Colorado in the last week’s matchup. This win came largely because of their aforementioned solid ground game, as Royce Freeman paced the offense with 163 rushing yards and two TDs, along with a commendable effort from Taj Griffin, who totaled110 rushing yards and a TD on 11 attempts from.

In the absence of starting QB Vernon Adams Jr., who skipped the game with a broken index finger, the passing had issues, as backup Jeff Lockie and former walk-on Taylor Alie struggled to move the ball in the air. Lockie completed 8 of his 11 passes for 54 yards and a pick, while Alie finished 4 of 9 for 83 yards and a TD. With Adams being reported as fit for Saturday, Oregon will get a major boost in the offense, going by his stellar dual-threat skills.

On the D-line, Oregon is allowing 37.4 PPG and 441.4 YPG, necessitating improvements from the defenders. Even more notably, the defense tends to shift down on its gears heading into the second quarter, allow 10.5 points per game at such intervals. This tendency will need to be corrected as Washington State is talented enough to take advantage of such loopholes. Oh, and don’t be surprised to hear lots of calls against Oregon when they take the field, as they are among the most penalized teams in the country, receiving an average of 8.5 penalties per game.

Betting on the Washington State Cougars

Unlike Oregon, the Cougars do not have QB issues. Washington State has found a lot of success through the air, averaging 369.2 passing yards per game, good enough for seventh-best in Division I. Unfortunately, the Cougars did not have the same success as Oregon in their previous game, as they fell 34-28 to California. Despite the loss, QB Luke Falk had a great game against California, totaling 389 yards passing and two TDs through the air. Gabe Marks also impressed as well in that game, grabbing 10 receptions for 141 yards and with a TD.

Falk, who is commendably completing 72.6 percent of his passes for 1,459 yards with 10 TDs against just 2 INTs this season, will need to bring his A-game once again this Saturday. Along with the support from his receivers, it could grant the Cougars a good chance to match the explosiveness of Adams and Freeman in the scoring charts.

Defensively, the Cougars defense ranks 17th in the country with an average of three sacks per game. The defense is also decently allowing 26.5 PPG and 393.5 YPG, and is quite disciplined, ranking 11th in the country in avoiding penalties this season (with just 4.2 per game). This defense will be very important, especially in stopping Oregon’s versatile running game and forcing the Ducks into committing mistakes.

Oregon vs. Washington State Key Betting Trends

  • The Ducks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games
  • The Cougars are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games
  • The Ducks are 18-4 SU in their last 22 games
  • The Cougars are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games
  • The Ducks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games at home
  • The Cougars are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road
  • The Ducks are 5-0 SU in their last five games when playing Washington State
  • The Cougars are 5-0 ATS in their last five games when playing Oregon
  • The total has gone OVER in four of Oregon’s last five games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Washington State’s last nine games on the road

My Expert Game Prediction & Pick

This game is a mismatch of sorts as Oregon’s 11th-ranked rushing attack will face the 63rd-ranked Cougars run defense. Meanwhile, Oregon’s weak passing defense will be struggling to contain Washington State’s stellar passing game. On such grounds, you can expect both teams to pour a lot of points through their respective strengths, leading to a high-scoring OVER affair. The win could, of course, go either way, but given that the Ducks will be playing at home, we believe they’ll be able to tap into that friendly energy to have the last laugh on both the SU and ATS lines.