Michigan @ Penn State NCAA Football Spread Guide

Posted by Daniel Strum on Saturday,November 21, 2015 6:17, EDT in

The Michigan Wolverines will look to stay hot and win their fourth straight game since suffering their only loss of the season, but doing so may be more than they’re bargaining for as they take on a Penn State Nittany Lions team that has not lost at home this season. Now, let’s find out which one of these Big Ten rivals will bring home the bacon and win this college football odds match up.

How To Bet the Wolverines @ Nittany Lions NCAA Football Odds, TV & Game Info

When: Saturday, November 21, 12:00 PM ET
Where: Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pennsylvania
TV: ABC
NCAAF Odds: Penn State +5.5
Over/Under: 42.5

Why Bet on the Michigan Wolverines (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS)

The Wolverines enter this Week 12 Big Ten battle looking to record their fourth straight win since losing to Michigan State on Oct. 17. Michigan picked up a hard-fought 48-41 double overtime win over Indiana on Saturday despite never coming close to covering the NCAAF betting line as a 12.5-point road favorite. Quarterback Jake Rudock completed 33-of-46 passes for a career-high 440 yards and a career-best six touchdowns, but it was wide receiver Jehu Chesson that led the way by racking up 10 catches for 207 yards and four touchdowns. “Jehu (Chesson) came to play,” Harbaugh said. “I told him this week during practice that he’s got everything it takes to be a great player, someday a great pro player. The only thing I think he was missing was tracking the deep ball, making the deep ball catches. And today, boom, he does it.”

Chesson caught a 5-yard TD pass on the final play of regulation to send the game to overtime before the Wolverines outlasted the Hoosiers. Jake Rudock has completed 64.2 percent of his passes this season for 2,220 yards with 14 touchdowns and eight interceptions. The Wolverines are ranked 49th in scoring (32.6 ppg) and a stellar sixth in points allowed (14.8 ppg).

Why Bet on the Penn State (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS)

The Nittany Lions had a bye in Week 11 following their heartbreaking 23-21 road loss against Northwestern as a 2-point road favorite two weeks ago. Penn State almost pulled off the comeback by limiting the Wildcats to just three second-half points. Quarterback Christian Hackenberg completed 21 of 40 passes for 205 yards while running back Saquon Barkley rushed for 120 yards and two scores on 25 carries. “They were able to run the ball on us consistently really all day long,” Nittany Lions coach James Franklin. “On special teams, it’s hard to give up a kickoff return for a touchdown and be successful.” Unfortunately, the Nittany Lions also gave up a whopping 186 yards on 28 carries to Wildcats running back Justin Jackson in the loss while going an uninspiring 4-for-17 on third downs. “At the end we had opportunities, four minute offense, four minute defense,” Franklin said. “At the end, we weren’t able to play winning football.”

For the season, Hackenberg has completed 54.2 percent of his passes for 1,992 yards with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions while Barkley leads the ground attack with 836 yards and seven touchdowns. Penn State is ranked 93rd in scoring (25.2 ppg) but a fantastic 13th in points allowed (17.7 ppg).

My Penn State vs Michigan Game Analysis & Pick:

A convincing 67 percent of the betting public likes Michigan to get the road win and accompanying ATS cover, but I don’t! The Wolverines have been very fortunate to win two of their last three games and Penn State has played very well in winning tow of three and giving Northwestern a tough way to go since losing to Ohio State four weeks ago. For me, this game has the look of a classic field goal contest that Penn State could not only cover the spread in, but do so by getting the outright home win. Michigan lost on the road at Utah and beat Indiana and Minnesota by a combined 10 points. Penn State is unbeaten at home and has plenty of motivation to ruin Michigan’s big-time bowl game hopes while improving their own chances of participating in a big-name bowl game.

The Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week and 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. The Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS loss. The home team in this Big ten rivalry is 5-1 ATS in their last half-dozen meetings while Michigan has gone 1-4 ATS in their last five dates against the Nittany Lions. I’m going with Penn State for the upset!

My Pick: Penn State 24 Michigan 21