How to Bet SMU vs Navy 2019 College Football Week 13 Spread & Expert Pick.

How to Bet SMU vs Navy 2019 College Football Week 13 Spread & Expert Pick

Written by on November 22, 2019

Most important game in the American Athletic Conference on Saturday is when No. 25 SMU visits Navy. The winner still has a chance to play in the conference title game and maybe a New Year’s Six bowl. The Middies are short NCAAF betting favorites at Mybookie.

SMU vs Navy College Football Week 13 Spread & Game Info

Last Season

Navy lost at SMU 31-30 in overtime last season but the Middies were a much worse team in 2018. Hunter Thedford caught a 2-point conversion pass in the first overtime on a play that led to several minutes of discussion by officials and a review before it was held up.

After Ben Hicks threw a 4-yard touchdown pass to James Proche, Mustangs coach Sonny Dykes chose to go for the win. C.J. Williams ran 52 yards for a tying touchdown with 6:19 left in the fourth quarter and led the Midshipmen with 82 of their 349 yards rushing. It was SMU’s first win over Navy since 1998, ending an eight-game skid in the series.

The Midshipmen lead the all-time series 12-8.

Why Bet on SMU?

SMU bounced back from its only loss with a 59-51 win over East Carolina on Nov. 9. Kylen Granson caught three touchdowns, including a 31-yarder on fourth-and-20 with SMU leading 45-44 midway through the fourth quarter. Granson had 138 yards on seven receptions, while James Proche finished with 14 catches for 167 yards and two scores. It was Proche’s school record ninth straight game with a receiving TD. He now has the SMU record for career receiving TDs with 36 (Emmanuel Sanders had 34 from 2006-09).

Proche has been named one of 12 semifinalists for the Biletnikoff Award, recognizing college football’s outstanding FBS receiver. Proche leads Mustang receivers with 1,008 yards and 12 touchdowns off 88 receptions. His 8.8 receptions per game lead the nation, while his receiving touchdown total is fifth and his receiving yards are 10th.

Key Numbers

Shane Buechele threw for 414 yards and five TDs as the Mustangs finished with 636 total yards to 644 for the Pirates. Buechele has multiple passing TDs in 9 straight games, tying the SMU record (Kyle Padron 2009-10). Buechele was named one of 16 semifinalists for the 2019 Davey O’Brien National Quarterback Award. He has thrown for 3,195 yards (5th at SMU) and 28 touchdowns (3rd at SMU) in his first season on the Hilltop, and ranks fourth nationally in passing yards and passing yards per game and seventh in passing TDs.

Xavier Jones, who ran for 157 yards, had three rushing touchdowns for the third time this season, giving him 18. His total touchdowns reached 20, one more than the Pro Football Hall of Famer Dickerson had in 1981 — all on the ground. SMU has at least 34 points in each game this year and is averaging 45.1 on the season.

The Mustang defense ranks second nationally in sacks (4.20) and fifth in tackles for loss (8.6), while SMU ranks sixth in total offense (522.2) and scoring offense (45.1).

Team Stats

Offense
  • Points per Game: 45.10
  • Passing Yards: 328.10
  • Rushing Yards: 194.10
  • Yards per Play: 6.28

Defense

  • Points per Game: 32.70
  • Passing Yards: 301.50
  • Rushing Yards: 124.30
  • Yards per Play: 5.73

Why Bet on Navy?

If Memphis were to lose to either USF on Saturday or to Cincinnati the following Friday (11/29), the winner of Saturday’s Navy vs. SMU game would have the opportunity to win the AAC West outright with a win next Saturday.

The Midshipmen are coming off a 52-20 loss on the road at No. 16 Notre Dame last Saturday after a five-game conference win streak. That knocked Navy out of the College Football Top 25 rankings.

The Irish defense forced three first-half fumbles by Navy quarterback Malcolm Perry, who rushed 25 times for 117 yards before behind replaced in the third quarter by freshman Perry Olsen. Perry was averaging 130.2 rushing yards entering the game.

Irish defensive end Khalid Kareem forced two fumbles and linebacker Drew White had 10 tackles. Notre Dame turned four fumble recoveries into 24 points. Meanwhile, the Midshipmen’s defense, allowing just 310.6 yards a game, allowed 300 at halftime by the Irish and 410 for the game.

Season Balance

Navy is guaranteed at least four more games this season – SMU, at Houston (11/30), vs. Army (12/14) and bowl game (TBA). If Navy can win them all, the Mids would tie the school record for wins with 11 (2015). Navy could still get to 12 wins if it wins the AAC West and wins the AAC Championship game.

Saturday marks the final home game for Navy’s 32 seniors. The Mids have won 16 consecutive games on Senior Day with its last Senior Day loss coming in 2002, when Navy lost a 38-0 decision to UConn. Navy has improved by six games in 2019 compared to 2018 with at least four games remaining. The Mids were 3-10 in 2018 and currently stand at 7-2. The FBS record is 8.5 games by Hawai’i in 1999.

Navy last beat a ranked opponent in 2016 when the Mids stunned No. 6 Houston, 46-40, in Annapolis.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Points per Game: 37.89
  • Passing Yards: 96.67
  • Rushing Yards: 349.33
  • Yards per Play: 6.61

Defense

  • Points per Game: 21.89
  • Passing Yards: 212.78
  • Rushing Yards: 108.89
  • Yards per Play: 5.14

SMU vs Navy College Football Week 13 Betting Trends

  • Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings
  • Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings
  • Mustangs are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games on the road
  • Mustangs are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in November
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Southern Methodist’s last 5 games this season
  • Midshipmen are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games at home
  • Midshipmen are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Saturday
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Navy’s last 5 games played in November

Expert Final Score Prediction for SMU vs Navy

SMU 38 – Navy 41

 

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