Can McCaffery Lead Stanford to Home NCAAF Lines ‘Upset’ Over Kizer Notre Dame?

Posted by Daniel Strum on Thursday,November 26, 2015 3:10, EST in

Led by Heisman Trophy candidate running back Christian McCaffrey, No. 9 Stanford will look to pull off the big home NCAAF lines ‘upset’ win over Deshone Kizer and No. 4 Notre Dame when the two rivals square off at Stanford Stadium in an enormous Week 13 pairing of elite national championship hopefuls. Now, let’s find out which one of these teams will win and cash in!

No. 5 Notre Dame @ No. 9 Stanford NCAAF Lines Game Information and Odds

When: 7:30 PM ET, Saturday, November 28, 2015
Where: Stanford Stadium, Stanford, California
NCAAF Odds: Notre Dame -3.5
Over/Under: 56

Notre Dame (10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS)

Notre Dame squeaked past Boston College 19-16 in an ugly affair last weekend and never came close to covering the spread as a 14.5-point favorite.

Quarterback Deshone Kizer threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns, but also tossed three interceptions in the narrow win. The Irish however, know a win in this contest will likely seal their berth in the four-team playoff. The Irish have ripped off six straight wins and are currently sixth in the CFP rankings.

Notre Dame committed a whopping five turnovers in all against the Eagles and will be without cornerback KeiVarae Russell (broken leg) and running back C.J. Prosise (ankle) after both starters were injured last weekend.

Brian-Kelly-ND-NCAAF-Lines

Head coach Brian Kelly said his team can not have a repeat of their performance against Boston College. “If they do that, they’re going to win. So it’s a different kind of mentality going into this game, that our really good players have to step up and play really well,” Kelly said. “They can’t drop the ball, fumble the ball. They know that. I don’t have to preach it as much as they know going into this game that they have to take care of the ball and they have to play really well.”

Stanford (9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS)

Stanford bounced back from a loss I their previous game to beat struggling Cal 35-22 in Week 12 to cash in as a 10-point favorite, thanks to another spectacular effort from Christian McCaffery.

Christian-McCaffey-Stanford-NCAAF-Odds

McCaffrey set a school-record with a stunning 389 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns against Cal last weekend as Stanford reached the 30-point plateau for the 10th consecutive game. The fleet-footed sophomore leads the nation in all-purpose yards (2,807) and ranks second in rushing yards (1,546). “If anybody has seen a running back, a football player better than Christian McCaffrey this year, tell me. Show him to me,” Cardinal head coach David Shaw told reporters. “I haven’t seen anybody in America like this kid. He’s truly, truly special.”

The Cardinal clinched the Pac-12 North title with last week’s win over California as McCaffery added a stunning 98-yard kickoff return to his resume. “I think that we’re kind of a cliché power football team is what people like to call us and we have so much speed and athleticism on this team, it’s fun to see,” McCaffrey said. “I think it does surprise a lot of defenses.”

Notre Dame @ Stanford NCAAF Lines Game Analysis:

I have absolutely no idea why Notre Dame is favored on the road against a very talented Stanford team or why 44 percent of the betting public likes the Fighting Irish to cover the spread by getting the outright road win, but I don’t!

First and foremost, I believe the Irish are a bit overrated and have benefited from being an Independent team that faces teams like UMass, Wake Forest and Boston College while Stanford has had to run the gauntlet that is the competitive Pac-12. I liked the way the Cardinal bounced back from a loss in their previous contest to beat Cal last weekend and I think the Cardinal have a sense of urgency right now as they try to keep their slim College Football Playoff hopes alive.

While Notre Dames has gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games against Stanford, the underdog in this series is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. More importantly, it seems like the Irish struggle to cover the spread late in the season as they’ve gone 1-7 ATS in their last eight games in the month of November.

Stanford has put together an incendiary 8-2 ATS mark in their last 10 games following an SU win while also going 4-1 ATS in their last five games in the month of November and 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games against a team with a winning road record.

I like Stanford for the ‘upset’ home win, even though it’s not much of an upset in my mind.

My Pick: Stanford 31 Notre Dame 27