Texas A&M vs. Alabama NCAA Football Odds Guide

Posted by Alex Murphy on October 16, 2015 in

The ninth-ranked Texas A&M Aggies and 10th-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide will square off in a gigantic Week 7 SEC showdown that will have postseason implications for both SEC national title hopefuls. If you’re looking to cash in on the college football betting lines for the match, let’s get down to the business at hand and find out which team is going to bring home the bacon.

How To Bet the Crimson Tide @ Aggies NCAA Football Odds, TV & Game Info

When: Saturday, October 17, 3:30 PM ET
Where: Kyle Field, College Station, Texas
NCAAF Odds: Alabama -4
Total: 53.5

Why Bet on the Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1 SU, 2-4 ATS)

I had hopes that Arkansas could at least hang with Alabama last weekend, but that was clearly not the case as the Tide rolled to a convincing 27-14 win over the Razorbacks despite narrowly failing to cash in as a 15-point road favorite. With Arkansas leading late in the third quarter, Alabama quarterback Jake Coker connected with freshman wide receiver Calvin Ridley for an 81-yard touchdown strike and a 10-7 lead the Tide would never give up. Alabama outscored Arkansas 17-7 in the final period and capitalized on a failed fake punt by the Hogs. Since getting upset in their 43-37 home loss against then-No. 15 Ole Miss, Alabama has allowed just 24 total points over their last three wins.

The Crimson Tide limited the Razorbacks to 44 rushing on 25 carries, prompting defensive back Eddie Jackson to say Alabama is “hands down” the No. 1 defense in the country. Linebacker Reggie Ragland won the SEC Defensive Player of the Week award after racking up seven tackles, one sack, a forced fumble, one pass breakup and two quarterback hurries. “Confidence is the key to being a great defense,” Ragland said. “You’ve got to have confidence and Eddie’s confident in our defense. But we’ve got to keep getting better each week. That’s the thing for us to be that type of defense.”

Why Bet on the Texas A&M Aggies (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS)

The Aggies rolled all over Mississippi State in its commanding 30-17 Week 6 win while easily covering the college football betting line as a 4-point home favorite. The ninth-ranked Aggies look to open a season 6-0 for first time since starting 7-0 in 1995. The Aggies have been 5-0 twice since ‘95, including last season before they got tripped up and limped to an 8-5 finish. The Aggies have two wins over ranked opponents this season, but have lost two straight against the Crimson Tide including a resounding 59-0 blowout loss almost one year ago to the date.

Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin refused to hype this game as more important than any other on the Aggies’ schedule. “I’m not being smart here, but as you win every week, this game becomes the biggest game,” Sumlin said. “This game is a big game because we’re 5-0, and it’s Alabama, and we’re both top-10 teams, and we’re both trying to win the division championship and get to Atlanta … Is it a benchmark (game)? It’s a benchmark in the SEC every week.”

Quarterback Kyle Allen completed 25 of 41 passes for 322 yards with two touchdowns while adding 62 rushing yards on a dozen carries. Running back Tra Carson added 110 yards and one touchdown on 26 carries while wide receiver Josh Reynolds caught seven passes for 141 yards.

My Expert Game Analysis and Betting Pick

I’m going to get right to the point by saying that I really like Texas A&M to cover the spread at the very least – because of their much-improved defense and Alabama’s lack of a consistently balanced offense. Alabama has struggled mightily to cover the spread in going 1-4 ATS in their last five games and an identical 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an SU win. Texas A&M has compiled a disappointing 3-7 ATS mark in their last 10 home games, but the Aggies are also 5-1 ATS in their last half-dozen games.

Just 43 percent of the betting public likes Texas A&M to cover the spread, but I’m urging you to back the home dog Aggies in this one, particularly after seeing the egg the Crimson Tide laid against Ole Miss a month ago.

My Pick: Texas A&M 30 Alabama 24