Texas Tech vs Baylor NCAA Football Odds Preview

Posted by Daniel Strum on October 2, 2015 in

The Texas Tech Red Raiders may be unranked as they get set for their Week 5 Big 12 battle against No. 5 Baylor, but I’m going on record right now and College Football lines fans can agree when I say that one team looks like an absolute lock to bring home the bacon in this intriguing pairing – and it’s not the high-ranked Bears. Now, let’s find out why.

How To Bet the Bears @ Red Raiders NCAA Football Odds & Game Info

When: Saturday, October 3, 3:30 PM ET
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
NCAAF Odds: Baylor -15.5
Over/Under 85.5

Why Bet on the Baylor Bears

Fifth-ranked Baylor absolutely obliterated the Rice Owls in their overwhelming 70-17 Week 4 win to easily cash in as mind-numbing 33-point home favorites. Quarterback Seth Russell had a monster day in completing 12 of 16 passes for 277 yards and a whopping six touchdown passes while running back Shock Linwood added 158 rushing yards and one score on 16 carries. Russell is completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 995 yards with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions. Russell also leads the nation in touchdown passes. Baylor is ranked first in total yards, first in rushing and first in scoring (64.0 ppg) while also ranking 58th in points allowed (23.0 ppg).

Why Bet on the Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas Tech played fantastic football but lost a heartbreaker of an affair in falling to No. 4 TCU 55-52 in a wild affair that literally came down to the last possession. Quarterback Pat Mahomes II completed 25 of 45 passes for 392 yards and two touchdowns in the loss while running back DeAndre Washington rushed 22 times for 188 yards and a whopping four touchdowns to help the Red Raiders cash in as a 5-point home dog.

Mahomes II is completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 1,421 yards with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions. Texas Tech ranks fifth in total yards, fifth in passing and fourth in the nation in scoring (53.8 ppg) while ranking 108th in points allowed (36.0 ppg).

My Expert Game Analysis, Prediction & Pick

63 percent of the betting public likes Texas Tech and I believe that’s an easy call for this contest, seeing as how the Red Raiders almost pulled off the outright upset over a TCU team that plays a nearly identical style of football as Baylor. While Baylor has won four straight in this series, the Bears were only able to eke out a 2-point road win last season and five of the last seven meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less.  While Baylor has gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings, the home team in this Big 12 rivalry is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Last but not least, Texas Tech has gone 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games and a bankroll-boosting 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. As far as the Over/Under Total is concerned, the Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings and I see no reason to believe why it won’t go over the high total in this contest seeing as how each of the last four meetings have featured a total of 79.5 points or higher.

The Pick: Texas Tech 49 Baylor 45