Texas vs TCU Week 13 Expert Betting Pick

Posted by Jordan Walterss on July 28, 2016 in

One of the best days of the college football season is always the day after Thanksgiving as it’s the busiest Friday schedule of the year and usually chock full of good games. And there’s an excellent one this season from Austin when Texas hosts TCU in Big 12 action. Hard to call a favorite on NCAA football odds this early. TCU looks to be a better team, but UT is at home.

Analyzing the Texas vs TCU Week 13 Expert Betting Pick & TV Info

When: Friday, Nov. 25, 3:30 PM ET
Where: Royal Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
StreamCollege Sports Live
RadioTexas / TCU
Opening NCAAF Lines: TBD

Texas vs TCU Historic Betting Trends

Texas will want some payback for last year’s 50-7 loss to TCU. Texas forced a three-and- out on TCU’s first possession, but on the Longhorns’ ensuing possession, TCU recovered a Daje Johnson fumble and took over at the Texas 45. Four plays later, TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin found KaVontae Turpin for a 13-yard score to stake the Horned Frogs to a 7-0 lead. Michael Dickson lined up for a Texas punt after the Horns’ next possession, but the snap sailed over his head and into the end zone. Texas recovered the ball, but the play resulted in a safety and two points for TCU. It was pretty much over at that point.

TCU scored 30 first-quarter points. The last time Texas allowed 30+ points in a quarter was on Nov. 7, 1987, when Houston scored 31 points in the fourth quarter to defeat Texas, 60-40. The Longhorns scored a late touchdown to avoid matching the second-worst shutout loss in school history — 50-0 to Oklahoma 107 years ago. TCU beat Texas in consecutive years for the first time since 1958-59, outscoring the Longhorns 98-17.

Boykin threw five touchdown passes, including four to freshman Turpin, for TCU. Josh Doctson broke the TCU record for receiving touchdowns with a pair of scores as the Horned Frogs. Both Boykin and Doctson are now in the NFL. Doctson had 7 catches for 129 yards and Turpin had 6 catches for 138 yards. It was the first time in 35 games that Texas allowed two 100-yard receivers. The last time that occurred was Nov. 3, 2012 against Texas Tech.

Why Bet Texas?

With the possible exception of true freshman quarterback Shane Buechele, who looks likely to be Texas’s starter this season, no player will bear more of the burden to revive the Longhorns in 2016 than sophomore linebacker Malik Jefferson. Last year, Jefferson immediately worked his way into Texas’ first-string defense, earning nine starts. Despite his youth, Jefferson justified his presence in the starting lineup with 61 tackles, second most on the team, and seven tackles for loss. He proved a skilled pass-rusher, leading the Longhorns with six quarterback hurries. In addition to becoming the first Texas player to earn Big 12 defensive rookie of the year since Quandre Diggs in 2011, he also earned an All-Big 12 honorable mention selection.

At quarterback, Buechele seems like the most likely starting choice after an impressive spring, with Tyrone Swoopes still utilized in short yardage. While putting a freshman this high is a gamble, new offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert is running his version of Art Briles' system, which is awfully quarterback-friendly.

Why Bet TCU?

The Frogs lose the record-setting Boykin but will have an experienced replacement in Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill. Hill has thrown for 2,832 yards and 24 touchdowns as an SEC quarterback. He set a Texas A&M record with 511 passing yards in the Aggies’ 2014 season opener at South Carolina.

But it was the highlight of his time at A&M. A three-game losing streak against Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Alabama cost him the starting job, and he was replaced by Kyle Allen. In November 2014, Hill was suspended for two games for violating team rules and athletic department policies. Then he transferred.

The Frogs also have a terrific young receiver in Turpin, who is on the watch list for the Paul Hornung Award. Turpin was a Freshman All-American and All-Big 12 recipient last year. He set TCU freshman records with his 45 receptions for 649 yards and eight touchdowns, which tied for second nationally among freshmen. He set a Big 12 freshman record with four touchdown catches against Texas, a mark that tied for the top spot in the nation by an FBS player last season. He was the only player in the country in 2015 to rank in the top 25 in kickoff returns (27.0 average) and punt returns (10.6 average). He averaged 15.3 yards each time he touched the ball.

My Expert Betting Pick

Texas covers what should be a close spread on NCAA football odds.