Toledo vs Arkansas State Week 1 Expert Betting Pick

Posted by Eric Williams on Tuesday,August 2, 2016 4:01, EDT in

The Toledo Rockets and Arkansas State Red Wolves will met in a Week 1 matchup of high-scoring team that could turn out to be one of the most exciting games on the entire opening slate of Week 1 college football games this coming season. Now, let’s find out which team is the right pick to cover the college football betting lines.

Here’s a Look at the Toledo vs Arkansas State Week 1 Expert Betting Pick & TV Info

When: Friday, September 2, 2016, 9:00pm ET
Where: Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR
TV: ESPNU
Radio: Toledo / Arkansas State 
Live Stream: astateredwolves.com
NCAA Odds: Arkansas State (-4)

Why Bet The Toledo Rockets at +3.5?

The Rockets have a high-powered offense that can score on anyone! Toledo (10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS) averaged a stellar 35.0 points per game in 2015 while allowing 20.7 points per game defensively. The Rockets will have a new head coach in 2016 as former offensive coordinator Jason Candle takes over for the departed Matt Campbell. The good news is that the Rockets have a pair of all-conference running backs in senior Kareem Hunt and junior Terry Swanson. The bad news is that the Rockets will have a new starting quarterback in inexperienced junior Logan Woodside, a player that never saw the field in 2015. The offensive line is solid and should be a positive for the Rockets this coming season.

Defensively, Toledo will need to shore up a defensive line thinned by graduations, although the linebacker and secondary units are solid with proven performers in linebackers Ja’Wuan Woodley and senior Jaylen Coleman and senior safeties Connery Swift and Delando Johnson.

Why Bet The Arkansas State Red Wolves at -3.5?

The Red Wolves (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) can light up the scoreboard and are playing at home. Arkansas State averaged a stellar 40.0 points per game while allowing 30.2 points per contest defensively. The Red Wolves went 8-0 in conference play a year ago, but head coach Blake Anderson needs a new starting quarterback among other questions he must answer.

Sophomore transfer Justice Hansen, a former Oklahoma recruit, is the likely starter, but he’ll battle it out with Chad Voytik a graduate transfer from Pittsburgh. Hansen completed more than 77 percent of his attempts in junior college and is a dual-threat signal-caller that will give the Red Wolves more options.

Arkansas State has two All-conference offensive linemen and a pair of running backs in Johnston White and Warren Wand that combined for 1,323 yards and 19 touchdowns as backups last season. The Red Wolves are unproven at the wide receiver position, but there is talent with two returning backups that need to step up this coming season.

Defensively, Arkansas State led all FBS teams in defensive touchdowns with a whopping eight while tying for second in turnovers with 34, including a nation’s best 26 interceptions. The Rockets return conference sack leader, defensive end Ja’Von Rolland-Jones and have plenty of talent up front to pair him with. Linebackers Khari Lain and Xavier Woodson- Luster are back after combining for 149 tackles last season, but Arkansas State needs to find a replacement for top cornerback Rocky Hayes.

My Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction

I know Arkansas State is absolutely explosive offensively, but Toledo is the only team in this Week1 matchup that plays any sort of competent defense, making the Rockets the pick to cover the college football betting line – by getting the outright road win. While Arkansas State has gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games and a robust 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games, Toledo has gone 9-0 ATS in their last nine road games, 3-0- 1 ATS in their last four games against teams from the Sun Belt conference and a bankroll- boosting 12-2- 2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

Toledo wins a high-scoring affair t bring home the bacon!

My Expert Pick: Toledo 31 Arkansas State 27