Our college football week 2 expert picks went a perfect 4-for-4. And yes, we are claiming the Bama point spread victory as well, given Alabama’s line opened at 24 and closed at 27 with the Tide winning by exactly 28 points. That’s as good as you can ever get in this business, especially considering our early picks rely on unrefined values at the start of the week. Anyway, it’s a new week, and that means it’s time for our Week 3 college football betting lines. Let’s talk money and hope we can make a killing in the NCAAF lines once again, shall we?
Analyzing The Top College Football Expert Picks Of The Week (Sept. 17th)
Ohio Bobcats at Tennessee Volunteers, Saturday, September 17, 12:00 PM ET
Week 3 NCAAF Expert Pick: Ohio (+27.5)
So, Virginia Tech volunteered one for the road and the Tennessee Volunteers bounced back from an iffy Week 1 performance with a win and cover in front of a NCAA-record 156,990 crowd in the Battle at Bristol. Great news, indeed, especially if you read our NCAAF odds predictions last week that severally recommended Tennessee for the victory plus points. But don’t make the mistake of getting high on Tennessee (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) just yet. After struggling against the lowly Appalachian State at home and needing an overtime to claim their much-talked about Week 1 win, the Vols were far from solid last week against V-Tech, going into a 14-0 hole before climbing back up with 31 straight points en route to their 45-24 win (covering as 11-point favorites). Now, whereas Tennessee’s season is definitely back on track, the team is in no-way out of the murky waters. More relevantly, the run-reliant Vols (who are averaging 141 passing yards against 183 rushing yards per game) will be facing a solid Ohio Bobcats front-seven that ranks No. 2 in the nation in stopping the run, allowing just 26 rushing yards per game on the road this season. Dual-threat QB Joshua Dobbs and RB Jalen Hurd—the two main star in Tennessee’s offense–will therefore have their work cut out for them in this game. So, while a win should be all but assured for the Volunteers in this game, the Tennessee struggles so far and the decent start to the season by the Bobcats (45 PPG scoring, 1-1 SU and ATS) point towards a smart ATS value being with the visitors. FYI, the lone game in the history between these two teams came in Sept. 26, 2009 and the Vols won that game by just 11 points (34-23), with Ohio comfortably covering the ATS in the process.
Oregon at Nebraska, Saturday, September 17, 3:30 PM ET
Week 3 NCAAF Expert Pick: Oregon (+3)
The Cornhuskers are in dreamland after a fine 2-0 SU and ATS start, thanks largely to senior quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr.’s 485 passing yards, four touchdown passes and a passer rating of 174.9 through the team’s first two games. Nebraska is, however, yet to be tested sternly, as the first two games came against Fresno and Wyoming, who are rather simple opponents. Playing the ranked Ducks will therefore be a mega upgrade and the Huskers must be on their best if they are to claim the home win, especially now that QB Dakota Prukrop looks to have settled in well at Oregon, alongside star running back Royce Freeman. This will the first-ever meeting between these two teams and playing at home will definitely work strongly in Nebraska’s favor, as the Huskers are 4-1 SU and ATS in last five at home. Even so, the Ducks own an equally stellar 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games, including wins in the last three straight road games as the betting underdogs. This explains why we believe Oregon should be your expert pick.
USC Trojans at Stanford Cardinal (-8.5), Saturday, September 17, 8:00 PM ET
Week 3 NCAAF Expert Pick: Stanford (-8.5)
This one should be simpler than it looks. USC has a suspect defense that will be hard-done to contain Christian McCaffrey and gang; Stanford is well-rested after a bye last week; the Cardinal will be playing at home where they are impressively 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10; and Stanford has owned this series, going 7-3 SU and ATS in its last 10 overall vs. USC. Unless something tragically wrong happens between now and Saturday, this matchup should thus end up in a rather dominant win for Stanford.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Ole Miss Rebels, Saturday, September 17, 3:30 PM ET
Week 3 NCAAF Expert Pick: Alabama (-9.5)
Alabama’s up-rising quarterback Jalen Hurts is good, but he is by no means comparable to the refined passer and runner in Ole Miss’ veteran Chad Kelly. But that won’t matter here, as Alabama’s solid O-line will make Hurts and his offense look good while the Crimson Tide’s ever-solid defense dominates over Ole Miss. More importantly, Coach Nick Saban is well-aware that the Rebels have beaten him twice over the past two straight years and he’s probably had this game circled since his team’s schedule was released. The Rebels won’t be an easy out here; they will play solid like they did against FSU in Week 1 and have repeatedly done over Bama in the past two seasons. But when all is said and done, Bama will come out on top with the win plus the points, as the Crimson Tide send out an alarming about its SEC and National Championship title credentials. Simply put, expect a case of Third Time’s a Charm for Alabama in this contest.