Teams like the Alabama Crimson Tide, Clemson Tigers, Ohio State Buckeyes, and Oklahoma Sooners are yearly College Football Playoff contenders. In most seasons, those four teams post records with a single, maybe two, losses. But just because a team is fantastic straight up, it doesn’t mean it’s good at covering spreads. Check out this season’s top ranked teams most likely to disappoint sports bettors in the 2021 College Football Season. Let’s jump right into action so you can continue planning your bets against the NCAAF odds.
NCAA Top Ranked College Football Teams Likely to Fail This Season
2021 NCAA College Football Season
- When: Saturday, Aug. 28 – Saturday, Nov. 27
Alabama Crimson Tide
Last season, Bama was a covering juggernaut. The Tide went 8-3 against the spread. This season, Alabama should either go 6-6 or post a losing record ATS.
The main reason? Nobody thought Mac Jones and DeVonta Smith would dominate like they did. The word is out on quarterback Bryce Young, which means from their first game to their twelfth, Alabama will face huge spreads.
The Sooners shouldn’t come close to the 7-3 ATS record they posted in 2020. Oddsmakers will make Oklahoma the favorite in every game this season. They’ll have to cover ridiculous underlay spreads versus quality teams like West Virginia, Texas, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State.
Why are the Tigers favored to beat Georgia on Sep. 4? Reputation. When oddsmaking experts set spread lines, they do so for the public. They don’t set betting lines for professional handicappers.
We have more knowledge than the average football bettor, which is why the Tigers figure to be a bad play to cover spreads in 2021. During the regular season, Clemson doesn’t face any tough teams outside of Georgia.
Not only that, but Clemson went 5-6 against the spread last season. The Tigers should show a similar record ATS in 2021, either 6-6 or 5-7.
Ohio State Buckeyes
The 2021 Ohio State Buckeyes are a much different team than the one who fell to Alabama in the National Championship. Key starters, including quarterback Justin Fields, no longer play in Columbus.
In 2020, the Buckeyes went 3-3 ATS. They only played 6 regular season games and they still couldn’t finish above .500 against the spread. This season, Ohio State could post a losing record ATS because they’ve got tough road games versus Minnesota, Indiana, Nebraska, and Michigan.
Oregon visits Ohio State on Sep. 11 and Penn State heads to Columbus on Oct. 30. Ohio State could go undefeated SU and cost backers money ATS.
Texas A&M Aggies
It’s hard to know how good Texas A&M will be this season. The Aggies lost a single game in 2020, a blowout to Alabama.
But although Texas A&M played great after losing to Bama, Jimbo Fisher’s squad must prove the offensive line can hang with quality teams in the SEC. Also, quarterback Kellen Mond is now a Minnesota Vikings.
Due to preseason hype, Texas A&M, no doubt, will face spreads they can’t cover. Later in the season, when the Aggies play Ole Miss, Auburn, and LSU, A&M might not only lose against the spread as a favorite, but they could also lose on the moneyline.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
No team faces as tough of a 5-game stretch this season than the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Starting on Sep. 25, Notre Dame hosts Wisconsin and Cincinnati, travels to Virginia Tech, and then welcomes USC and North Carolina.
The Irish play 4 of the 5 games at home, which means they’ll likely kick-off the chalk in all 5. But the 5 opponents can beat Notre Dame straight up. So there’s a good chance the Irish cover in 1, maybe 2, of the 5 games.
Notre Dame will have trouble covering in most of their other games because the Fighting Irish remain one of the most popular teams to back against the spread in college football. As money lands on the Irish, oddsmakers adjust and force Notre Dame to cover tougher spreads.