Week 12 Free NCAAF Betting Picks: USC @ Oregon Due for a High-scoring Thriller

Posted by Kenny Bell on November 21, 2015 in

In one of the most anticipated NCAAF betting encounters of the weekend between unranked teams, the Southern Cal Trojans (7-3) and the Oregon Ducks 7-3 will be meeting for the first time since 2012, thanks to the Pac-12 schedule rotation. With only two regular season games to play this year, USC control its destiny atop the Pac-12 South Division, while the equally-resurgent Ducks can keep their hopes of winning the Pac-12 North crown alive by bagging a win this Saturday. Which of the two programs will win this crucial game at Autzen Stadium? Here’s everything you need to know about placing your wagers on this game in the NCAAF betting.

USC at Oregon NCAAF Betting & Game Preview
Venue: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
Date: Saturday, November 21, 2015
Time: 3:30 PM ET
NCAAF Lines: USC (+4) at Oregon (-4)

Entering this clash, the Oregon Ducks have won four games in a row including a 27-24 win over a determined Colorado program on the road last Friday. Oregon was lucky to win the game as Colorado played one of its best games of the season, despite losing QB Sefo Liafau to injury in the first half. The Ducks, however, proved that they were hungrier for the win, making enough plays on both ends of the field to see out the crucial win.

QB Vernon Adams Jr. starred for the Ducks last week, as he went 10 of 12 for 205 yards with two TDs, capping up an incredible night. RB Royce Freeman also had an amazing game, as he rushed for 105 on 16 carries with one touchdown.

Mind you, the Colorado win came after they looked very impressive in their 38-36 win over Stanford two weeks, something they’ll need to maintain against the USC defense that is giving up 22.7 PPG and 385 YPG, and has shown massive improvements in the second half of the season. Notably, Oregon was unbeaten in the whole of last month, a momentum they would love to maintain in their remaining games of the season, if they are to remain relevant in the race for the Pac-12 North Crown.

Meanwhile, the Ducks’ sack-happy defense is led by DE Tyree Robinson and Tyree Robinson, ILBs Rodney Hardrick and Joe Walker. This defense boasts of 29 sacks, 8 fumble recoveries with 11 interceptions so far this season despite allowing 32.9 PPG with 489 YPG. The expectation is that this defense will rally behind its strong home ground support on Saturday in the bid to stop the Trojans offense. That, however, remains to be seen, as they face a lethal USC offense that is impressively averaging 36 PPG with 465.4 YPG this season.

Last week, for example, the Trojans trailed their game 17-6 at the half, before QB Cody Kessler bounced back in astounding fashion, with all of his three passing TDs coming in the first three drives of the second half. He finished the game with 204 passing yards, three TDs and one interception on 17 of 27 passing.

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RB Justin Davis also impressed in the win, finishing with 85 rushing yards on 14 carries, while Ronald Jones II, who needs just 87 yards to break the Trojans freshman season rushing record set by Heisman winner Charles White, added 61 yards on the ground.

Kessler, who currently ranks among the Trojans’ all-time top-4 QBs in touchdown passes, is definitely one of the best QBs in the nation, so the Trojans can feel confident of their chances to upset Oregon. But in order for that to happen, his offense must step it up and maintain resoluteness, given the Ducks are just as talented in the offense. His biggest hope here is the fact that Oregon is among the NCAA’s bottom 15 in total yards per game (489 YPG), and is giving up 317.7 passing yards per game.

On the opposite side of the ball, Su’a Cravens and Adoree’ Jackson have led USC’s opportunistic defense to 4 defensive scores and the defense is currently placed decently at +1.0 in turnovers this season after a rough start to the season. The pair must lead USC’s defense in a strong show against Adams and the Ducks’ solid offense, which is averaging an impressive 41.8 PPG with 543.4 YPG this season and has been playing some its best football in recent weeks.

Key Betting Trends
• The Ducks are 5-1 SU in their last six games
• The Trojans are 4-1 SU in their last five games
• The Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games
• The Trojans are 2-4 ATS in their last six games
• The Ducks are 20-4 SU in their last 24 games at home
• The Trojans are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games on the road
• The Ducks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at home
• The Trojans are 8-15 ATS in their last 23 games on the road
• The Ducks are 4-2 SU in their last six games when playing Southern Cal
• The Trojans are 2-4 ATS in their last six games when playing Oregon
• The total has gone OVER in four of Oregon’s last five games when playing Southern Cal
• The total has gone UNDER in seven of Southern Cal’s last eight games on the road

USC at Oregon betting Predictions
Going by the way both teams have been playing recently, each one of them riding on a four-game winning streak, this game is likely to be a close encounter that will be decided late in the fourth quarter. No doubt, Kessler is surefire top performer that will have a big game here. However, Oregon is coming two quality road wins against Colorado and Stanford, which will motivate the team for a bigger show at home. Even more notably, Adams rarely makes mistakes and Oregon has a better ground attack, which is likely to be the difference-maker in this game. With that, I believe Oregon should be good for both the win and cover, though it won’t come easy, as both teams will trade several offensive blows until late in the game in a high-scoring game. Free NCAAF Picks: Oregon for SU and ATS, Total goes OVER.