Virginia at Miami Week 12 NCAAF Spread & Betting Pick

Virginia at Miami Week 12 NCAAF Spread & Betting Pick

Written by on November 15, 2017

Saturday’s College Football odds lines up as a huge trap game for bettors and for No. 2 Miami. They’re off back-to-back wins over ranked teams Virginia Tech and Notre Dame to clinch a spot in the ACC title game. Virginia won’t win in south Florida but might cover a nearly three-TD NCAAF spread.

Virginia at Miami Week 12 NCAAF Spread & Betting Pick

When: Saturday, Noon ET Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami TV: ABC Stream: WatchESPN Radio: 97.5 WWWV-FM (Virginia) / 560 WQAM (Miami) Opening NCAAF Spread: Miami -19.5 (50.5)

Weather Forecast

  • Partly Cloudy: 27°C/80°F
  • Humidity: 62%
  • Precipitation: 10%
  • Wind: 8 mph E
  • Cloud Cover: 32%
  • Type of Stadium: Open

Last Meeting

Virginia lost at home to Miami last year 34-14, part of the Cavs’ season-ending seven-game skid. Brad Kaaya threw two touchdown passes and Mark Walton ran for 111 yards and another score. Kaaya is now in the NFL and Walton is out injured for the rest of this season for the Canes. Virginia trailed just 17-14 at halftime, but mustered only 28 yards in the third quarter as Miami pulled away. Virginia fumbled the ball away four times, all in the second half.This is the 15th meeting between the Coastal Division rivals. With UVA winning four of the last seven meetings, Miami leads the series by two games, 8-6.

Top Picks to Bet Against the Spread in NCAAF Week 12

Series History

  • Total Meetings: 14
  • First Meeting: December 27th, 1996. Miami, Florida
  • Last Meeting: November  12th, 2106. Charlottesville, Virginia
  • All-Time Series: Miami Hurricanes 8-6-0
  • Largest Margin of Victory: Virginia 48-0
  • Longest Win Streak: Tied at 3
  • Current Win Streak: Miami 2 (2015-2016)

Why Bet On Virginia?

The Wahoos are 6-4 after just two wins all of last year. They come off a 38-21 defeat to Louisville. Virginia managed just 115 yards and a late touchdown after the break. The Cavaliers scored first and only trailed 17-14 at halftime. But the offense stalled until Jordan Ellis’ 3-yard TD run late in the game. They also allowed four sacks and committed two turnovers leading to 10 points. Quarterback Kurt Benkert completed 19 of 36 passes for 214 yards and a TD.Benkert recorded his 14-career game of 200 or more passing yards, tying him for No. 3 all-time at UVA with Marc Verica. Benkert now has 5,044 career passing yards, placing him No. 6 all-time at UVA.Olamide Zaccheaus extended his reception streak to 26 games. The four catches by Zaccheaus gives him 70 for the season, tying Heath Miller for No. 3 on the UVA single-season reception list. Zaccheaus now has 1,527 career receiving yards, which now ranks No. 14 all-time at UVA. With nine tackles, Quin Blanding now has 454 career tackles, which ranks No. 1 all-time at UVA and No. 18 all-time in the ACC.

How Has Quin Blanding Done So Far?

Blanding needs three tackles to make UVA the only school in the nation with two players with at least 100 tackles this season. ILB Micah Kiser leads the ACC with 106. UVA is the only school with three players in the Top 110 in tackles as ILB Jordan Mack is No. 6 in the ACC and No. 33 in the nation with 88 stops.Saturday is the sixth time UVA will play an Associated Press team ranked No. 2 or higher on the road and first since 2014 at then-No. 2 Florida State. UVA is 0-5 all-time in those games, which includes playing at No. 1 Army (1958), Purdue (1968) and Florida State (1993). The other game was a neutral meeting with then-No. 2 Notre Dame in 1989. UVA is 0-13 all-time on the road against the AP Top 5, including 0-5 in the state of Florida (all five games at Florida State). Miami is the highest ranked opponent UVA head coach Bronco Mendenhall has faced since his 2009 BYU team beat then-No. 3 Oklahoma.

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 25.80
  • Total Yards: 364.40
  • Pass Yards: 251.80
  • Rush Yards: 112.60
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 26.60
  • Total Yards: 360.10
  • Pass Yards: 180.20
  • Rush Yards: 179.90

Why Bet On Miami?

The Canes dominated No. 3 Notre Dame 41-8 last week in a stunner. Miami’s win snapped a four-game losing streak against the Irish and was its sixth consecutive home victory over Notre Dame dating back to 1981. It also extended the Hurricanes’ FBS-leading win streak to 14 games. The Canes’ last loss came at Notre Dame on Oct. 29, 2016. The Hurricanes also clinched the ACC Coastal Division title with Virginia’s loss to Louisville earlier in the day, assuring Miami a date with defending national champion and ACC Atlantic champ Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.Sophomore RB Travis Homer exploded for 146 yards on 18 carries, averaging 8.1 yards per carry. As a team, the Canes averaged 5.6 yards per carry against Notre Dame, amassing 237 yards and three touchdowns on the ground on 42 touches. Malik Rosier finished the game completing 15 of 24 passes for 137 yards and a touchdown. He has now thrown a touchdown in all 10 starts in his career.

How Well Did Miami play Against Notre Dame?

Is Miami a safe bet in Week 12?The Hurricanes didn’t have any problems crossing the goal line against the Fighting Irish, but their red zone offense has been an issue. Miami ranks 93rd in the FBS in red zone touchdown percentage (56 percent) and 120th in goal-to-go TD percentage (57 percent), just below winless Georgia Southern (60 percent). Miami’s offense has done a great job of taking care of the ball, turning the ball over nine times in nine games. And the Hurricanes have feasted on takeaways to generate offense and field position.There have been four turnovers created by Miami in each of the last four games — 16 total. That’s more than 73 teams have caused all season. The Canes’ grand total of 24 is tied for second nationally.

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 32.56
  • Total Yards: 451.33
  • Pass Yards: 270.44
  • Rush Yards: 180.89
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 16.56
  • Total Yards: 355.78
  • Pass Yards: 192.56
  • Rush Yards: 163.22

Latest NCAAF Spread Trends

  • Virginia is 2-5 ATS in the last 7 games on the road
  • Virginia is 8-15 SU in the last 23 games
  • The total went UNDER in 4 of Virginia’s last 6 games
  • Miami-FL is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 games
  • Miami-FL is 5-0 SU in the last 5 games
  • The total went UNDER in 5 of Miami-FL’s last 5 games

Expert Week 12 Prediction & NCAAF Pick

Miami won’t lose its final home game, but this is a trap. Take those points in the NCAAF spread.