The 18th-ranked Virginia Cavaliers will be looking to pull off the upset over the 25th-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish when they square off in their intriguing Week 5 matchup on Saturday. With the Cavaliers looking to remain unbeaten and the Fighting Irish looking to bounce back from their hard-fought loss against No. 3 Georgia, let’s find out which team is offering the best value against their college football odds in this affair.
Virginia vs Notre Dame 2019 College Football Week 5 Lines & Game Prediction
- When: Saturday September 28, 2019, 3:31 PM ET
- Where: Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, Indiana
- TV: NBC
- Scattered Thunderstorms: 22°C/71°F
- Humidity: 84%
- Precipitation: 40%
- Wind: 8 mph N
- Cloud Cover: 91%
- Type of Stadium: Open
Why Bet On Virginia at +11.5?
Virginia is looking solid right now for a handful of reasons, First, the Cavs have been playing some excellent defense in limiting the opposition to just 18.0 points per game (30th) combined with the fact that they’ve also found their way into the end zone pretty consistently in averaging 35.2 points per game (41st). Virginia took out ACC rival Pittsburgh 30-14 in their opener before thrashing William & Mary 52-17 in Week 2 and following that up with an impressive 31-24 smackdown of Florida State in Week 3. The Cavs beat Old Dominion 28-17 last weekend as quarterback Bryce Perkins passed for 175 yards and one touchdown while rushing for another score in the win.
- Average Score For: 37.67
- Total Yards: 412
- Pass Yards: 257
- Rush Yards: 155
- Average Score Against: 18.33
- Total Yards: 261.67
- Pass Yards: 183
- Rush Yards: 78.67
Why Bet On Notre Dame at -11.5?
Notre Dame is also looking good heading into this Week 5 matchup despite suffering a hard-fought 23-17 road loss against No. 3 Georgia last weekend. The Irish got 275 passing yards and two TD passes from quarterback Ian Book, but he also tossed a pair of costly interceptions in the loss. Notre Dame took out Louisville 35-17 in their opener and New Mexico 66-14 in their second game of the season. Notre Dame is averaging 39.3 points per game (25th) while limiting the opposition to just 18.0 points per game defensively (29th).
- Average Score For: 50.50
- Total Yards: 507
- Pass Yards: 313.50
- Rush Yards: 193.50
- Average Score Against: 15.50
- Total Yards: 373
- Pass Yards: 142.50
- Rush Yards: 230.50
College Football Week 5 Betting Trends for Virginia vs Notre Dame
- Virginia is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games against an opponent in the Independent conference
- Virginia is 5-0 SU in the last 5 games
- Virginia is 2-5 ATS in the last 7 games played in week 5
- Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games played in September
- Notre Dame is 15-2 SU in the last 17 games
- The total went UNDER in 5 of Notre Dame’s last 6 games
Virginia vs Notre Dame Expert Analysis and Prediction
Notre Dame might be playing at home and they might be motivated following last week’s loss against Georgia, but I like Virginia to cover the chalk as a double-digit road dog because of the solid football they’ve been playing this season on both sides of the ball.
The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Independent opponents and a blistering 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record. Virginia has also gone 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in the month of September.
I know Notre Dame has gone 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 4-1 ATS in their last five in the month of September, but think the spread here should be closer to a touchdown than the double-digit figure that it is. Notre Dame wins, but Virginia covers the chalk in a tight affair.
Pick: Notre Dame
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