Week 10 College Football Winning Predictions: Colorado Hosts UCLA

Posted by Eric Williams on Wednesday,November 2, 2016 4:10, EST in

The unranked UCLA Bruins will look to snap their three-game losing streak when they hit the road to face the 16th-ranked Colorado Buffaloes in a Pac-12 pairing that gets underway on Thursday night live from Colorado’s Folsom Field. Now, let’s find out where is the online betting value in this intriguing pairing lies.

Week 10 College Football Winning Predictions: Colorado Buffaloes Vs UCLA Bruins

UCLA Bruins at Colorado Buffaloes

When: Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 9:00 PM ET
Where: Folsom Field
TV: Fox Sports 1
Live Stream: FOX Sports GO
NCAAF Odds: Colorado Buffaloes -11.5

 

 

UCLA Bruins

UCLA (3-5 SU, 2-6 ATS) has lost three straight and ended up on the wrong side of a narrow 52-45 loss against Utah in Week 8. Backup quarterback Mike Fafaul completed 40 of 70 passes for 464 yards and four touchdowns, but the Bruins couldn’t get a defensive stop when they needed one the most.

Now, the Bruins will take on Colorado with starting quarterback Josh Rosen sidelined for the third straight game – and they can’t turn to a rushing attack that ranks dead last nationally at 85.5 yards per game. UCLA is averaging 28.4 points per game to rank 70th in scoring. For his part, Fafaul is completing 55.7 percent of his passes for 779 yards with eight touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Running back Soso Jamabo has rushed for  team-high 206 yards and three touchdowns, but the UCLA Bruins’ defense is giving up 26.8 points per game to rank 64th nationally in points allowed.

Colorado Buffaloes

Colorado (6-2 SU, 8-0 ATS) got past Stanford 10-5 in a defensive battle that was downright ugly most of the time. Running back Phillip Lindsay rushed for 131 yards despite missing the majority of the second half while quarterback Sefo Liufau completed 12 of 25 passes for 135 yards and one touchdown.

For the season, Liufau is completing 67.4 percent of his passes for 1,179 yards with seven touchdowns while Lindsay has rushed for 745 yards and 9 touchdowns. The Colorado offense is averaging 35.4 points per game to rank 33rd nationally in scoring while limiting their opponents to just 18.1 points per game defensively to rank a fantastic 18th in points allowed.

 

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Expert Prediction and Pick

UCLA has won five straight over Colorado dating back to 2011, but I like the Buffaloes to bring that streak to an abrupt halt in this contest because of their lockdown defense. I know UCLA has gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a bye week, but the Bruins are also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.

On the flip side, Colorado has covered the spread in all eight of their games this season while going 6-0 ATS in their last half-dozen conference games and 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. The Buffaloes have a ton to play for as they seek, both, a Pac-12 conference title – and a berth in a New Year’s Bowl Six matchup. This season, Colorado is simply the better team in all three phases of the game and will cover the college football betting line by the slimmest of margins.

Pick: Colorado 35 UCLA 21