Week 11 College Football ATS Picks

Posted by Eric Williams on Monday,November 7, 2016 3:14, EDT in

Can the unbeaten Alabama Crimson Tide cover the spread against mediocre Mississippi State? Will the streaking Penn State Nittany Lions extend their winning ways? Will the struggling Florida Gators rebound from their humbling Week 10 smackdown?

You’re going to find out the answers to all three questions thanks to the trio of Week 11 college football ATS picks that you’re about to get.

In Depth Analysis On The Week 11 College Football ATS Picks

 

 

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide

When: Saturday, November 12, 2016 at 12:00 PM ET
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium
TV: ESPN
NCAAF Odds: Alabama Crimson Tide -29

Analysis: The Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS) won’t have any trouble beating the Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) in their Week 11 SEC showdown on Saturday, but they’re not the pick to cover the college football betting line as a whopping 29-point home favorite. Alabama is coming off of a hard fought 10-0 win over LSU, but their narrow win over the Tigers should actually give their remaining opponents this season a great blueprint on how to keep the nation’s top-ranked team largely in check.

I know Alabama is averaging 40.1 points per game and that they have an elite defense that gives up just 13.2 points per game, but Mississippi State looked fantastic in beating No. 4 Texas A&M 35-28 this past weekend as quarterback Nick Fitzgerald ran for a whopping 182 yards and two touchdowns and I believe the Bulldogs have more than enough momentum to cover the spread as four-touchdown-plus road dogs.

The Bulldogs are averaging a healthy 30.9 points per game and have a really good running back in Aeris Williams that toasted Texas A&M for a career-high 140 yards and an excellent No. 1 receiver in wideout Fred Ross (9 TDs). More importantly, Alabama has beaten Mississippi State by more than 29 points just once in their last 10 meetings (2012). Mississippi State covers the spread by copying LSU’s game plan against the Crimson Tide as much as possible.

Pick: Mississippi State +29 Points

Penn State Nittany Lions at Indiana Hoosiers

When: Saturday, November 12, 2016 at 12:00 PM ET
Where: Memorial Stadium
TV: ABC, ESPN2
NCAAF Odds: Indiana Hoosiers +6.5

Analysis: There’s a lot of happiness in Happy Valley these days. The Penn State Nittany Lions (7-2 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) have ripped off five straight wins and enter their Week 11 matchup against the Indiana Hoosiers (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) feeling quite good about themselves.

The Nittany Lions rolled all over Iowa this past weekend 41-14 to easily cover the college football betting line and look like they’re in a great position to do the same against the Hoosiers despite the fact that Indiana has won two straight including their narrow 33-27 win over Rutgers on Saturday. Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley may be completing a modest 55.6 percent of his passes this season, but the strong-armed signal-caller has also thrown 14 touchdown passes and just three interceptions.

The Nittany Lions also have one of the nation’s best running backs in Saquon Barkley, even if he doesn’t get the same national attention as some other more publicized backs. Barkley has rushed for 1,055 yards and 11 touchdowns and should be able to have his way against a Hoosiers defense that gives up a whopping 191.6 rushing yards per game on the road.

The Hoosiers are looking to become bowl eligible, but they’ve also been limited to just two wins over ranked teams since the 2014 season. Penn State is just 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 road games, but a near-perfect 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall. The Hoosiers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win while the home team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. More importantly, Penn State has a lot to play for as they shoot for a berth in the Big Ten title game. The Nittany Lions will win and cover the spread.

Pick: Penn State -6.5 Points

 

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South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators

When: Saturday, November 12, 2016 at 12:00 PM ET
Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
TV: CBS
NCAAF Odds: Florida Gators -14

Analysis: The Florida Gators (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) had their three-game winning streak emphatically snapped in their humbling 31-10 loss to Arkansas on Saturday while the South Carolina Gamecocks (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) won their third straight game by taking out Missouri 31-21. The Gators have an elite defense that limits the opposition to just 11.7 points per game, but Florida often struggles offensively despite averaging a respectable 29.4 points per game. Case in point, Florida has topped the 28-point plateau just once in their last five games.

Florida has a talented quarterback in Luke del Rio, the son of Oakland Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio, but the younger Del Rio is also a first-time starter that is very inexperienced right now. While Florida has struggled in losing two of their last five games, South Carolina seems to be hitting its stride at just the right time under first-year head coach Will Muschamp. More importantly, the Gamecocks are getting some fantastic play out of freshman signal-caller Jake Bentley.

South Carolina’s surprisingly talented young quarterback has played with a poise that belies his youth and inexperience. Bentley threw for 254 yards and two touchdowns to lead South Carolina to their most recent win and the Gamecocks are 3-0 behind their new starting quarterback. Not only that, but for me, South Carolina’s defense, which limits the opposition to just 21.2 points per game, is what will be the deciding factor that leads the Gamecocks to the ATS win at the very least in this matchup.

Florida is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after failing to cover the spread, but the Gators are also just 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. South Carolina is 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record and will cover the spread in this contest while giving the Gators all they can handle for the outright win.

Pick: South Carolina +14 Points